本文以台灣地區民眾對現任總統個人的信任度為主題,企圖找尋影響民眾評估現任總統是否值得信賴的因素,進而區辨其個別影響力的高低。主要研究問題有二:首先,文獻對於政治信任所提出的理性因素(或制度因素)是否可以進一步從政策的角度加以區辨?不同政策領域的績效又如何影響民眾對現任總統的信任?第二,民眾對總統個人的能力與動機之信任是否受到施政滿意度與政黨認同兩種因素的影響?若答案是肯定,則兩類因素的重要性是否可以加以比較?其結果又有何意涵?本文採用多元迴歸為主要分析方法。研究發現如下:首先,相對於民眾最期待解決問題或是總體滿意度最高的政策領域,最能讓民眾感受到的政策領域之滿意度,對其評估現任總統信任度會產生最強的影響力;其次,台灣民眾對現任總統的信任同時受到施政滿意度與政黨認同的影響,在控制其他變數後,對現任總統施政滿意度比政黨認同更強地影響民眾對總統的信任。
This article attempts to identify the factors affecting Taiwanese people's trust in the incumbent President and further differentiate their respective significance. Two research questions are asked in this article: first, regarding the rational interpretation of political trust, can we further explore its argument from the perspective of policies? In other words, would different policy domains exert the same power in helping citizens to make their judgment on the President's trustworthiness? Second, are people really inspired by both the so-called satisfaction of performance and party identification in deciding whether the incumbent President can be trusted or not? If the answer is positive, can we compare the relative magnitude between the two kinds of factors? In addition, what does this comparison imply? With the help of regression analysis, we come to the following findings. First, when we further break the notion of policy performance into three categories, the satisfaction with the most felt policy area of the individuals stands out as the single best predictor of people's trust in the incumbent President. Second, the factors determining Taiwanese people's trust in the incumbent President are both rational and affective. Nevertheless, when controlling for other variables, we found that people's satisfaction with the incumbent President's performance outweighs their party identification in accounting for their trust in the President.