「分析層級程序法」與「德菲法」運用於陸軍指參作業程序行動方案評估之研究

A Research Analysis of Hierarchy Process and Delphi Method on Course of Action Comparison in Military Decision Making Process

李育臻(Yu-Chen Li)

《國防雜誌》 26卷2期 (2011/04) Pp. 109-122

https://doi.org/10.6326/NDJ.2011.26(2).8

摘要

一、陸軍指參作業程序「行動方案比較」採用量化數值進行比較時，有關評估要項的選定、權重值的決定通常僅由少數人（指揮官或作戰部門）決定，往往其所考慮的因素欠周延，容易形成決策上的盲點。二、本研究旨在陸軍指參作業程序下，針對「行動方案比較」建立一套模式，使作戰部門依本模式分析，藉群體決策協助指揮官下達決心。本研究所提出之模式符合科學的方法，運用具有說服力的數值，以量化所顯現之數據獲取較為客觀的評估。三、評估要項的選定、權重值的決定以及其重要性在各個行動方案中的比重配分，係透過德菲法群體決策與AHP層級建立所產生，決策過程與考慮因素較周延，不易形成決策上的盲點；另結合支援決策軟體工具，可快速建立決策模式，有助於精進陸軍指參作業程序。

關鍵字

指參作業程序 ； AHP分析層級程序法 ； Delph德菲法

並列摘要

1. When performing a Course of Action Comparison by numerical analysis, criteria items and weight were assigned by the commander or chief of staff. This process causes a lack of stringency because of the imperfect nature of considering numerous parameters and often results in decision making blind spots.2. This study focuses on making a model while performing according to Course of Action Comparison in Military Decision Making Process (MDMP). With the help of this model, commanders can rely on its assistance when making group decision making decision by group decision. This model is scientific in its measurements; measure Course of Action comparison are based on analysis using numerical data.3. The assignments of criteria, weights, and score, were undertaken by Delphi Method and Analysis Hierarchy Process (AHP). The consideration and decision making process are more comprehensive. With the combination of decision making software, this study could establish a decision model and have an advantage over MDMP.

並列關鍵字

Military decision making process (MDMP) ； Analysis hierarchy process (AHP) ； Delphi method