課徵能源稅的總體經濟效果

Analyzing the Macro-Economic Effects of Enegery Taxes

黃琝琇(Wen-Hsiu Huang) ； 林建甫(Chien-Fu Jeff Lin)

《農業與資源經濟》 6卷2期 (2009/12) Pp. 29-69

https://doi.org/10.29796/ARE.200912.0002

摘要

本文以總體經濟計量模型，分析能源稅條例草案若於2010年實施，對台灣總體經濟的效果。結果顯示，課徵能源稅將不利國民經濟生產，且所得分配惡化。其次，若在油價下跌時實施能源稅，可緩和對經濟的負面影響，爲開始課徵的適宜時機。最後，比較搭配不同的稅收循環措施，就環保目的，以搭配綜所稅減稅的節能減碳效果最佳，但國民經濟與所得分配最差；若爲減緩經濟衝擊，以搭配營所稅減稅的國民經濟與所得分配最佳，不過卻會失去節能減碳之原意。因此，較可行的作法是將能源稅收同時用於綜所稅與營所稅減稅，並依政策目標視實施情況加以適度調整。

關鍵字

能源稅 ； 雙重紅利 ； 油價 ； 總體計量模型

並列摘要

This paper analyzes the effects of initiating energy taxes on the Taiwan economy. According to the simulations, it shows that energy taxes effectively reduce CO2 emission and energy consumption, but have negative effects on the macro economy and income distribution. Concerning the oil price effects, the negative effects of energy taxes on the economy can be alleviated if the oil price goes down. It is right time to put energy taxes into practice when the oil price is low. Furthermore, this study simulates three different ways of recycling tax revenues from energy taxes to the economy. Recycling energy tax revenues to reduce the individual income tax has advantages of protecting environment and restraining energy consumption, but makes the economy and income distribution worse. However, if energy tax revenues to reduce the corporate income tax, it improves the economy and income distribution, but causes unefficiency to protect environment and restrain energy consumption. Therefore, it can not be complete in both environmental and economic respects; the better way is to choose a compromise between them.

並列關鍵字

Energy Tax ； Double Dividend ； Oil Price ； Macro-econometric Model