本文利用多部門動態可計算一般均衡(computable general equilibrium, CGF)模型與資料庫,透過投資動態機制與價格的內生化,並考量資源(包括人力、土地)的限制及生產要素(包括原始投入與中間投入)間的替代可能性,先完成歷史模擬更新投入產出資料;其次,建構預測模擬封閉準則,並納入模型外在變數的專家預測值(例如部門出口成長率、總要素生產力等),以逐年遞歸動態(annual recursive dynamic)求解的方式,進行臺灣27個部門之產業結構預測。預測結果顯示:農業結構比賡續呈現下降趨勢,其附加價值佔總附加價值比將由2003年2.08%降低至2011年1.40%;工業結構比亦呈現下滑趨勢,其附加價值佔總附加價值比將由2003年32.25%降低至2011年31.45%,在製造業的發展上,傳統產業與基礎工業之成長將呈現趨緩現象,科技密集及附加價值較高的產業,尤其是電力與電子器械業的成長最為迅速;而隨著臺灣邁入後工業化時期,使得人們對服務業的需求更為增加且多樣化,整體服務業結構比將呈現穩定上升趨勢,由2003年65.67%增加至2011年67.15%。
This study explores the baseline forecasting of changes in Taiwan's industrial structure from 2003 to 2011 using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. With a dynamic mechanism of investment, price endogenization and input substitution, historical simulation was used to update the input-output dataset. Forecasting results show that the value-added share of the agriculture sector will decrease from 2.08% in 2003 to 1.40% in 2011, and the share of the industry sector will also decrease from 32.25% in 2003 to 31.45% in 2011. Growth of the traditional industry sector and basic industry sector will slow down too, but the high-tech industry sector and higher value-added sectors such as electricity, electronics and mechanical sectors will grow rapidly. The service sector will increase from 65.67% in 2003 to 67.15% in 2011 and will provide the major GDP growth in Taiwan's economy.