臺灣生命循環消費與退休

Life-Cycle Consumption and Retirement in Taiwan

詹維玲(Vei-Lin Chan)

《臺灣經濟預測與政策》 39卷2期 (2009/03) Pp. 129-159

https://doi.org/10.29629/TEFP.200903.0004

摘要

本文的目的是討論退休對生命循環消費的影響。我們首先檢視以1976-2006年「家庭收支調查」的重複橫斷面混合資料所估算的生命循環消費結構。資料顯示，只有食品和與工作有關的非耐久財消費結構才有戶長一退休驟降的現象。這與許多國家相似。其中又以在外伙食和衣著消費支出的降幅最大。此外，在戶長退休後，屬於奢侈財的娛樂消遣非耐久財和屬於必需財的食品的消費支出下跌幅度相當。這與預防性儲蓄動機、沒有按計劃消費以及Becker(1965)的理論預期不一致。由於與工作爲互補的消費支出會受到退休與否的影響，故預期到的戶長退休可能可以解釋部分消費支出的退休驟降現象。我們因此在生命循環／恆常所得假說的架構下，利用歷年「家庭收支調查」資料所建立的準長期追蹤資料，估計家庭消費的擴充尤拉方程式。估計結果發現，戶長退休造成家庭非耐久財消費支出成長率顯著減少，各消費結構卻未必有同樣的結果。戶長退休只對食品和與工作有關的消費結構消費支出才有顯著的負面影響的結論，並不受估計模型納入消費過度敏感所影響。

關鍵字

生命循環消費 ； 生命循環／恆常所得假說 ； 退休

並列摘要

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of retirement on lifecycle consumption. We first examine the life-cycle profiles of nondurable expenditures constructed by repeated cross-sectional data from The Survey of Family Income and Expenditure. The data show that only food and work-related nondurable expenditures fall sharply at retirement of household heads. In addition, expenditure on luxury goods such as nondurable entertainment declines as much as that of necessary goods such as food. This result is inconsistent with precautionary saving motives, poor planning or Becker (1965)'s model. We further estimate an augmented Euler equation which allows for retirement and unemployment of household heads to affect households' life-cycle consumption. The regressions use a pseudo panel dataset which is constructed from The Survey of Family Income and Expenditure. The estimation results support the conclusion that retirement can explain decreases in food and work-related nondurable expenditures around retirement regardless of the inclusion of the disposable income growth rate in the regressions.

並列關鍵字

Life-cycle consumption ； Life cycle/permanent income hypothesis ； Retirement

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