全球暖化趨勢對臺灣果樹生產之影響

Impact of Global Warming Trend on Fruit Production in Taiwan

張致盛(Chih-Sheng Chang) ； 王念慈(Nien-Tzu Wang)

《作物、環境與生物資訊》 5卷3期 (2008/09) Pp. 196-203

https://doi.org/10.30061/CEB.200809.0006

摘要

全球暖化對農業生產的衝擊與影響日益受到重視，由於絕大部分的果樹樹體高大，不易於利用設施生產，幾乎都在露天狀態下栽培。而果樹又屬於多年生作物，由花芽分化、花芽發育、開花、果實形成至成熟的期間長，相較於其他作物，更容易受到氣候變遷的影響。此外，由於臺灣特殊的地理環境與栽培模式，具經濟生產規模的果樹種類相當多，產區分佈遼闊，使得全球暖化對果樹生產的影響更加複雜。本文就全球暖化造成溫度上升現象，探討其對臺灣果樹生產之影響，包括全球暖化後溫度上升導致滿足落葉果樹休眠所需之低溫量不足，影響花芽分化、萌芽及花器發育，可能使得開花異常及產量降低；溫度上升可能改變果樹物候與果實生育期間的積算溫度，縮短果實發育時間；影響果實著色及醣類或其他內容物的含量，導致外觀與品質的改變。由於溫度上升及其他氣候的變化可能使病蟲害生態改變，將會影響病蟲害發生的頻率與時期。全球暖化趨勢對臺灣果樹生產長期的影響，可能使果樹種類及品種之栽培區域逐漸向北或較高海拔遷移，此外產期將會提早或延長。全球暖化亦將使得臺灣果樹的種類、品種、產地的分佈與產業的結構發生變化。

關鍵字

全球暖化 ； 果樹 ； 生產

並列摘要

The impact and influence of global warming on agricultural production has been received a great deal of attention recently. The large size of the fruit trees has making them difficult to produce under the shelter, and thus are mostly grown outdoors. The long growing duration of perennial trees, from flower differentiation, development, anthesis to the maturity of the fruit, also places them more prone to climate change. The progress of global warming would cause a shortage of chilling requirement, and results in variations of flower differentiation, blooming and development leading to abnormal flowering and yield reduction. The increasing of air temperature may also affect the required accumulated temperature and shorten the period of fruit development. In addition, a higher ambient temperature may change fruit contents, appearance and quality. The enlargement of climate variability will affect the ecosystem of fruit pests and diseases and hence raise the control costs. The long-term effects of global warming on fruit production in Taiwan include northward moving of cropping areas, cultivating toward a higher altitude, and the changes of harvest timing and fruits trees distribution. Therefore, it is expected to have a gradual change in the tree species, variety and distribution as well as the structure of fruit industry in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Global warming ； Fruit tree ； Production