總額支付制度下個別醫院醫療費用預測模型建立－以某教學醫院為例

Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model for a Global Budget System-A Case Study in a Teaching Hospital

嚴玉華(Yu-Hua Yan) ； 許碩芬(Shuo-Fen Hsu) ； 方世杰(Shih-Chieh Fang) ； 孫緒媛(Hsu-Yuan Sun)

《澄清醫護管理雜誌》 5卷2期 (2009/04) Pp. 15-21

https://doi.org/10.30156/CCMJ.200904.0003

摘要

Objective: This purpose of this study is to establish an Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average Model for hospitals to use to control and predict the growth of inpatient healthcare expenditures in a global budget system. With the forecast model, the individual hospital can have a better understanding of its target budget during negotiations with the Bureau of National Health Insurance. Material and Methods: Data on inpatient healthcare expenditures, number of physicians, and sick beds were collected from July 2002 to June 2007 for the case hospital. [By ”sick beds” do you mean ”occupied beds” or ”number of patients”. If this is for a western audience, occupied beds or number of patients requiring care would be more understandable.] Results: Implementing the model for inpatient hospital days, length of stay and average length of stay achieved significant results for each (P＜0.05). Conclusion: The individual hospital can use the time-series model to predict the growth trends of inpatient healthcare expenditures before negotiating the target budget with the Bureau of National Health Insurance. Improved knowledge in negotiations will provide a more accurate and realistic budget.

關鍵字

總額支付制度 ； 時間序列分析 ； 住院醫療費用

並列摘要

Objective: This purpose of this study is to establish an Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average Model for hospitals to use to control and predict the growth of inpatient healthcare expenditures in a global budget system. With the forecast model, the individual hospital can have a better understanding of its target budget during negotiations with the Bureau of National Health Insurance. Material and Methods: Data on inpatient healthcare expenditures, number of physicians, and sick beds were collected from July 2002 to June 2007 for the case hospital. [By ”sick beds” do you mean ”occupied beds” or ”number of patients”. If this is for a western audience, occupied beds or number of patients requiring care would be more understandable.] Results: Implementing the model for inpatient hospital days, length of stay and average length of stay achieved significant results for each (P＜0.05). Conclusion: The individual hospital can use the time-series model to predict the growth trends of inpatient healthcare expenditures before negotiating the target budget with the Bureau of National Health Insurance. Improved knowledge in negotiations will provide a more accurate and realistic budget.

並列關鍵字

global budgets system ； time-series analysis ； inpatient healthcare expenditure