不動產證券化關鍵成功因素之研究－以臺灣市場為例

Analyze the Key Success Factors of Real Estate Securitization-A Case on Taiwan's Market

杜俊和(Michael Chun-Ho Tu) ； 張宮熊(Kung-Hsiung Chang) ； 顏世杰(Xi-Jie Yan)

《績效與策略研究》 4卷3期 (2007/12) Pp. 29-45

https://doi.org/10.6736/JPSR.200712_4(3).0003

摘要

本研究係以台灣不動產證券化公布後施行迄今這段期間發行或上市之商品進行實證探討，並以萬國商業大樓等六檔證券化商品為研究對象，透過灰關聯分析來瞭解臺灣不動產證券化在投資市場上之發行或上市成功關鍵因素，經過實證分析後發現：1.在即將發行或上市前：「預期投資報酬率」對發行及上市具有非常之重要性，其次為「預期房地產榮景如何」，接著是「預期台灣經濟榮景如何」等六項評估準則。2.上市後價格表現：「證劵化商品所提供的信用評等是否合理」最具影響性，其次為「預期的證劵市場榮景」，接著是「預期台灣經濟榮景如何」等六項評估準則。3.事前分析與事後優劣勢分析相互比較結果：對市場榮景之預期－包括證券市場、房地產市場及整體經濟對不動產證劵化是否成功具有關鍵之影響性；而預期報酬率與流動性反而與證劵化商品發行或上市後價格表現關聯度較低。此一結果與專家事前評估優先順序有部份差異。

關鍵字

不動產證券化 ； 灰關聯分析 ； 優劣勢分析 ； 關鍵成功因素

並列摘要

The Regulation of Real Estate Securitization was announced for execution on July 23, 2003. In December 2005, over NTD $50 billion of real estate securities was issued. It is also estimated that $300 billion could be written each year in the near future. Most of the research and discussion in Taiwan are focused either on the regulations, laws, and administration of real estate security product or purely on the product itself. This study examines the Wan-Gao Business Building in Taiwan through the Grey Forecasting Model to determine the key success factors of this particular security from issuance and onwards.
The discovery of the analysis uncovered the following: A) from the eight factors evaluations from the Grey Forecasting Model, many professional underwriters believed that the forecast of future return on investment (ROI) is the important aspect prior to issuance; b) Once the real estate security product has been issued, the most influential factor is the reliability of credit rating; and c) the Grey Forecasting Model concluded that the before issuance and after issuance of real estate security product, the key influential factors with high correlation are the forecast of real estate and stock market and the forecast of economic cycle.
The results showed the difference between what professional underwriters believe is influential factors prior to issuance and the factors that are actually influential once it has been issued the market.

並列關鍵字

Real Estate Securitization ； Grey Relational Analysis ； Competitiveness Analysis ； Key Success Factor

參考文獻

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