Support for Democracy and Willingness to Emigrate from Hong Kong

Brandon Alexander Millan ； Joel S. Fetzer

《Taiwan Journal of Democracy》 15卷2期 (2019/12) Pp. 195-212

摘要

After Beijing refused to grant Hong Kongers' demand for free elections for Chief Executive during the Umbrella Movement of 2014, many young citizens began to question their future in the SAR-especially given the evermore threatening countdown to 2047. These research notes apply Albert Hirschman's theory of ＂exit, voice, and loyalty＂ to the political and migratory situation in Hong Kong by testing whether dissatisfaction with the local political regime and pessimism about the prospects for political reform are creating a greater willingness to emigrate to countries such as Taiwan, Australia, and Canada. After reviewing official census and migration data from the four regions and estimating a Logit model of data from the 2015 Asian Urban-Wellbeing Indicators survey, the notes conclude that support for democracy is becoming an increasingly large motivator for Hong Kongers who are considering moving abroad to areas that are more politically liberal, even if not necessarily more affluent. After the failure of ＂voice,＂ Hong Kong's democrats feel they have no other option but to ＂exit.＂

關鍵字

2014 Hong Kong protests ； Albert Hirschman ； brain drain ； democratization ； emigration ； Hong Kong ； human rights ； Umbrella Movement

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