本文目的是以國內生產毛額(GDP)變動的經濟成本解釋的邊際減量成本,設想在2020年當排放權交易機制將發展日漸成熟後,台灣因而可能得以由亞太經濟合作組織(Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation, APEC)開始參與碳排放交易,循序漸進的參與2030年全世界國家一起進行之排放權交易。比較分析APEC成員國及全世界107國,於二種情境下之均衡交易價格與買賣方國家及其交易價格水準的差異。結果顯示,以GDP爲代表之邊際減量成本,排放量愈高的國家,面臨減量所需付出的邊際減量成本也會愈高。在目標爲總減量成本最小之考量下,2020年與2030年兩種交易情境皆顯示,經濟發展程度愈高的國家,均爲交易結果下的買方。在2020年APEC成員國的均衡交易價格每公噸爲1,005.69美元,而2030年全世界一起交易的均衡價格每公噸爲1,208.29美元。且台灣在兩種交易情境下均爲買方。而台灣將由APEC之區域組織而至及全世界的參與,因邊際減量成本及初始所分配到應減之二氧化碳的增加,傾向由交易中購入更大的比例。在2020年的APEC情境,台灣有21.16%的排放權是購自交易市場;然到2030年全世界一起交易後,購自交易市場的排放權則提升至39.08%。
The purpose of this paper is to construct two scenarios for countries in the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation in the year of 2020 and for 107 countries around the world in the year of 2030 and to observe the emission trading prices and the amounts of emission trading for each scenario. The idea of economic cost is used as the measurement of marginal abatement cost for the determination of trading. The results show that country with the higher amount of emission will have higher marginal abatement cost. With minimum total emission reduction cost as the objective, the scenarios of APEC and all over the world shows that most of the developed countries will be the buyers in the trading market and Taiwan is one of such countries. The trading price for APEC in the year of 2020 is US $1,005.69 per ton and that for all the world is US $1,208.29 per ton. More share of emission reduction will be purchased from the trading market while Taiwan joins this mechanism in APEC than that in the world market due to the increasing of the marginal abatement cost and the allocated emission reducing amounts. That is, in the APEC scenario there are 21.16% of permits for Taiwan will be purchased from the trading market. While in the world scenario there are 39.08% of the permits are purchased from the trading market.