後金融海嘯時期台灣經濟該何去何從？

The Future of Taiwan's Economy in the Post Global Financial Crisis Era

李登輝(Hon Teng-Hui Lee)

《台灣國際研究季刊》 8卷2期 (2012/06) Pp. 1-14

https://doi.org/10.29800/TLSQ.201206.0001

摘要

2008年金融海嘯後，國際經濟思潮出現大幅反省與修正，對當前主流經濟學理論過度強調自由開放，卻忽視風險管理加以檢討。諸多國際知名經濟學者更指出，這些鼓吹市場機制、自由競爭的理論必須為全球金融危機負起責任。深入觀察，在金融全球化之前，世界某區域的經濟遭受景氣衰退衝擊，其他區域仍能維持穩定，但這次景氣衰退卻是全球性蔓延，顯見，過去十年來金融體系過度鬆綁，金融服務業凌駕實體經濟的扭曲發展，終演變成今日難以收拾的後果。我國自2000年以來，政府大舉採取積極開放的政策思維，同時，基於對自由市場的迷思，把許多屬於國家的責任推給市場解決，以致台灣國家實質競爭力一再衰退，社會經濟更面臨多重危機。反觀台灣主要競爭對手南韓卻能逆勢成長，兩者主要差別在於，南韓具有明確經濟戰略，其以「國內為主體、海外為輔助」的主從發展思考，先厚植國內產業全球競爭力後，再行洽簽自由貿易協定；台灣則選擇依賴中國發展路徑，在放任國內資本形成不振與技術優勢流失後，再寄望以簽自由貿易協定強化經濟實力，無異緣木求魚。當前政府實應正視台灣經濟問題根源，以經貿自主與技術優勢為經濟發展兩大核心目標，確保台灣國家經濟安全，打造台灣成為一艘安全又有續航力的諾亞方舟。

關鍵字

金融海嘯 ； 經濟發展 ； 台灣經濟

並列摘要

Recent global financial crisis comes at the heels of a period of time when political leaders and market fundamentalists espoused deregulation. They argued that the efficiency of unfettered financial markets could improve overall economic performance. The inadequate regulation and ineffectively regulatory institutions have contributed to this crisis. While the blame should rest on financial markets, government failed to protect the market from itself and to protect society from the kinds of excesses that have imposed high costs on its citizens who did not participate in financial markets.Government in Taiwan still firmly believed that the doctrine of laissez faire can enhance the efficiency of economy, and adopted the open policy to allow firms to freely move their manufacturing sites to low-cost countries. Investment by Taiwanese business firms in China has accounted for more than 2.5% of Taiwan's GDP since 2006. As a result, workers in Taiwan found fewer jobs available, experienced staggering wage growth, and faced with deteriorating income disparity. To rebalance between efficiency and security, government in Taiwan must make the determined efforts in reducing economic dependence on China, in ensuring energy and food security, and in making advanced technology take root in our real economy. It is critical that the rebalanced national development strategy is vital for our future.

並列關鍵字

global financial crisis ； economic development ； Taiwan's economy