我國複合災害風險系統架構之探討

Compound Disaster Risk Analysis Framework in Taiwan

陳禹銘(Y. M. Chen) ； 許秋玲(C. L. Hsu) ； 樊國恕(K. S. Fan)

《危機管理學刊》 6卷2期 (2009/09) Pp. 1-12

https://doi.org/10.6459/JCM.200909_6(2).0001

摘要

技術上來說，單一災害風險評估通常僅針對某特定災害進行相關脆弱度與危害頻率評估，所考量的脆弱度因子是針對固定災害進行選取與分析。而複合性災害風險評估技術則是一項跨領域整合技術，需同時考量多類型災害的特點，除相對應之脆弱度因子外，還需考量因子與因子間之關聯性與相互關聯性。在此錯綜複雜的環境下，要評估災害風險並不是一件容易的事情，尤其是在脆弱度整合方面，由於缺乏標準化制度，不容易精準的評估脆弱度的狀態。本文透過系統工程的概念來分析複合災害風險評估技術之架構。

關鍵字

複合災害風險評估 ； 危害分析 ； 關聯性 ； 相互關聯性 ； 脆弱度

並列摘要

Compound disaster is triggered by at least two hazards either sequentially or simultaneously. Analysis of compound disaster risk not only needs to consider multi-hazard aspect, but also require constructing a generalized compound vulnerability model. Expressing the interconnectivity of vulnerability factors is not an easy task and remains in a rudimentary stage. Disaster risk analysis in Taiwan forms two main streams: disaster risk using damage loss as a foundation and disaster risk using vulnerability as a foundation. This work clarified the difference between these two streams and suggests vulnerability based approach as a foundation for constructing compound disaster risk analysis framework. Detail analysis of a compound disaster risk analysis framework is presented in this work and recommendations are provided to assist resolving some identified bottlenecks along prototyping a system.

並列關鍵字

disaster risk assessment ； hazard analysis ； dependency ； interdependency ； vulnerability

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