建立蒙地卡羅海上搜救模型進行搜救單位遲到時間之參數分析－以台灣東部海域為例

Parametric Study of Maritime SAR Delay on Distress Scene by Monte Carlo Simulation Search Model-West Pacific off East Coast of Taiwan as an Example

王貴民(K. M. Wang) ； 匡一忠(Z. Y. Kuang) ； 張家耀(G. Y. Zhang) ； 沈瑞隆(R. L. Shen) ； 黃鈞偉(J. W. Huang) ； 高翊愷(Y. K. Gao)

《危機管理學刊》 10卷2期 (2013/09) Pp. 13-24

https://doi.org/10.6459/JCM.201309_10(2).0002

摘要

台灣附近海域之高密度海上交通與海洋環境成為中度風險環境，海難事故年均超過300件，已凸顯出海上救難的效率的重要性。海難發生時的天候通常不佳，因而救難船艦到達現場的遲到時間成為影響海上救難的最大因素之一。本研究之目的係針對海上救難船艦建立搜索模擬模型，以之分析搜救單位遲到時間對救難搜索效能之影響；海域則以台灣東部屬於黑潮體系的外海為研究範圍。以蒙地卡羅方法（Monte Carlo method）為建模主體，相關子模型包括：「落海目標之漂浮位移」、「搜索」、「搜救船艦偵測裁判」、「統計」等四項。其中，海流的流向以機率分配模擬環境行為。研究主要限制為搜救之船艦數量以單船為主，在東岸海域進行72小時海上救難之模擬。

關鍵字

蒙地卡羅模擬法 ； 海上搜索 ； 偵測率 ； 遲到時間 ； 模型 ； 機率分配

並列摘要

The high density of maritime traffic with the marine conditions has made the sea area around Taiwan a moderate risk environment. More than the average of 300 shipwrecks annually has highlighted the issue of sea search and rescue. As shipwreck occurred, the live or death of survivals at sea are fully dependent on the efficient rescuers. However, the poor weather has been one of the major factors causing time delay of the rescue platform in execution of Search And Rescue (SAR) task. The purpose of this study is to model the searching vessel for its effectiveness on the SR task under the time of delay by various weather conditions. The scenario aims at Kuroshio area located on the eastern of Taiwan. With Monte Carlo method as fundamental, there are sub-models as the pillars include: ”Floating target's displacement”, ”Search”, ”Search and rescue ship detection referee” and ”Statistics”. The behavior of current heading is represented by the normal probability distribution. The main limitation of this study is to simulate single ship's SAR capability and with 72 hour time limit.

並列關鍵字

Monte Carlo ； Maritime search ； Detection rate ； Delay time ； model ； Probability distribution

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