運用前瞻思維於災害防救科技政策之規劃

Embedding Foresight in Planning of S&T Policy for Disaster Risk Reduction

林海珍(H. C. Lin) ； 羅良慧(L. H. Lo) ； 黃屏綸(P. L. Huang) ； 吳悅(Y. Wu) ； 陳怡如(Y. J. Chen) ； 鄧敏政(M. C. Teng)

《危機管理學刊》 11卷2期 (2014/09) Pp. 13-24

https://doi.org/10.6459/JCM.201409_11(2).0002

摘要

我國由於地處易致災區，過去對災害防救科技研發相當重視，亦投入相當多資源進行應用開發。然而過去我國在防災科技之應用上，多偏向針對現有災防體系的問題發展規劃之反應式思維，但在重大自然與社經環境趨勢改變之下，造成災害的因素日益複雜，面臨的致災情境亦以複合型災害形態為多，因此現有災防體系的科研發展規劃從反應式思維，逐漸轉變為積極預應式思維，使整體災防科研政策規劃朝向以防災需求為導向，並有效運用資源投入關鍵技術研發的方向，促使科技研發與應用可降低未來新興災害的風險。在此，本研究檢視美國、英國與世界經濟論壇等國家與國際組織採取的災防科研前瞻政策個案，分析其相關之作法與成果，藉由洞察國外標竿之經驗作法，運用前瞻活動於我國災害防救科技政策規劃之流程與方法，期能面對未來災防領域的不確定性時，可採行預警式政策規劃以回應未來防災需求，進而以系統性思維，提升規劃過程之強健度，促使災防科技研究逐步發展成完整災防科技支援系統，以幫助我國測災、知災、減災、調適及回復。

關鍵字

災害防救 ； 前瞻活動 ； 情境分析

並列摘要

The particular geographical location and geological properties of Taiwan mean that this island frequently exposes to natural disasters, such as typhoons and earthquakes, and it is more sensitive to their impacts than for other regions. Constantly, extreme weather events brought serious damages and consequences to Taiwan. Therefore, the issues of disaster reduction and management are very important for Taiwan, and it leads to an emerging need of S&T policy planning for disaster reduction. The conventional considerations for resource allocations and investment for the R&D of disaster deduction and management based on the existing problems of disaster under the trends of socio-economic development, it may lack the integrated thinking to deal with the more complicated and severe disasters for future society. Transforming the planning of disaster prevention technology to a proactive mode from reactive mode, it enhances the robustness of S&T policy for disaster risk reduction. In this study, we reviewed the experiences of foresight of the planning of S&T Policy from United States, United Kingdom and other countries and also analyzed the design of the foresight process and their outcomes. A framework embedding foresight approach into the present planning process of S&T policy is proposed, and S&T policies of disaster reduction are suggested through the insight of the foreign experiences. As a result, the R&D resources can be more efficiently allocated for the investments of critical technologies for future scenarios. With the proposed planning process with foresight, the planning may progress toward the development of a more proactive disaster management system for Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Disaster Reduction ； Foresight ； Scenario analysis

參考文獻

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