建立模擬模型分析反潛直升機之作戰效益

Simulation Analysis of ASW Helicopter's Operation Effectiveness

王貴民(K. M. Wang) ； 彭巧明(C. M. Peng) ； 蘇筱筠(S. Y. Su)

《危機管理學刊》 14卷1期 (2017/03) Pp. 7-18

https://doi.org/10.6459/JCM.201703_14(1).0002

摘要

空中儎具執行反潛作戰具有高效益與低風險的優點，主因是多數潛艦並未配備防空飛彈，對空中儎具不構成威脅。然而，空中反潛反潛作業存在諸多不確定性因素，如偵測誤差、目標位置估算誤差、投雷精準度誤差、魚雷聲納誤差以及目標潛艦迴避運動之不可預測性等，對投雷落水點與目標潛艦位置產生隨機性偏移。本研究針對魚雷相對於潛艦位置之隨機偏移與速率變化，以蒙地卡羅模擬方法進行2000 次模擬，對魚雷命中率呈現之變化進行分析。

關鍵字

模擬 ； 魚雷 ； 潛艦 ； 速率 ； 命中率

並列摘要

The advantage with high effectiveness and low risk of air ASW is due to the most of submarines are incapable of threatening the air ASW platform in terms of lack of anti-air weapons. Under this circumstance, ASW helicopter is still unable to overcome attack errors of torpedo causing by the uncertain situations in ASW operation. These Errors are such as detection, position estimate, water entry precision of torpedo, torpedo sonar detection, and the unpredictable of submarine evasive action, etc. that the randomness is then attached to air-drop torpedo scenario. In this study, the relationship between perused torpedo and evasive submarine is the aim with taking into account of randomness of both positions. Monte Carlo simulation is used to simulate (2000 runs) a given scenario, which considers the 35 knot torpedo attacking the various speeds' submarine. The initial positions are generated by the concept of CEP which follows normal probability of distribution. This study rules out using torpedo countermeasures by submarine that is the purpose to see the net evasion effectiveness. The result shows that as speed of submarine is increased to over 29 knot, the probability of torpedo hit (ph) is decreased to 0.4 and when it's over 32 knot then it is under 0.23. This result also implies speed is one of the critical factors for submarine in its torpedo evasive action. The productive contribution of this study is to reveal the relationship of air-drop torpedo and submarine showing the mean time for torpedo to intercept submarine is exponentially increasing as submarine speed is increasing and the ph is expressed as negative exponentially decreasing vs. the increasing speed of submarine.

並列關鍵字

Simulation ； Torpedo ； Submarine ； Speed ； Probability of hit ； Mean time to intercept

參考文獻

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