以尖點劇變模型探討旅行業發展電子商務之行銷策略

A Cusp Catastrophe Model for Marketing Strategies of Tour Operators in E-commerce

謝承憲(Cheng-Hsien Hsieh) ； 王淑美(Shu-Mei Wang)

《電子商務學報》 15卷3期 (2013/09) Pp. 389-410

https://doi.org/10.6188/JEB.2013.15(3).04

摘要

過去研究雖不乏觀光業電子商務之分析，然多著重於網站內容、資訊與績效等，而鮮少針對消費者意向之非線性行為進行討論。據此，本研究建構尖點劇變模型（cusp catastrophe model）以探討消費者對旅行業電子商務服務之選擇行為，是否具有非線性現象。本研究選取「消費者忠誠度」為模型中狀態變數，而控制變數則以「轉移成本」為分裂因子、「服務滿意度」為正則因子，除進行尖點劇變模型的質化分析外，並進一步校估模型參數進行量化分析來說明尖點劇變模型的行銷意涵。模式結果顯示，「轉換別家旅遊網站未必有比較好的服務」是導致轉移成本提升的最主要原因；其次係「我覺得這家旅遊網站符合我的期待」對於服務滿意度之影響。此外，旅遊電子商務顧客忠誠度並具備發散性、滯後性與突變性等特性，滿足劇變模型特徵，故唯有透過提供具有顯著差異之服務滿意度，方使轉移成本較高之消費者改變其選擇行為，並可依據研判結果擬定旅行業者發展電子商務經營之具體可行策略。

關鍵字

旅行業電子商務 ； 滿意度 ； 轉移成本 ； 尖點劇變模型

並列摘要

The various literatures in e-commerce for tour operators focused on the contents of websites, information and performance. However, the previous research lacked the nonlinear behavior of consumer intention. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to identify whether the factors, including the satisfaction and switching cost, impacting decisions of consumers through the tourism e-commercial platform choice and to determine the relationship between the impacting factors and consumer loyalty. The cusp catastrophe model (CCM) is utilized for constructing the non-linear choice behavior and explaining the non-linear features in management implications. Along with the qualitative analyses of CCM, the quantitative parameters estimation could help tour operators examine the feasible marketing strategies for e-commerce operating. The analytical results reveal that ”the uncertainty about obtaining better service quality for switching the transaction to the other website of tourism operator” is the most critical item increasing switching costs. Moreover, the item significantly influences satisfaction represents ”the website meets my expectation of e-commerce for tour operator.” Tour operators thus should provide significantly different level of satisfaction to facilitate the switching behaviors of tourism e-commerce consumers with higher switching cost.

並列關鍵字

E-commerce for tour operator ； satisfaction ； switching cost ； cusp catastrophe model

參考文獻

Athanassopoulos, A. D. (2000). Customer satisfaction cues to support market segmentation and explain switching behavior. Journal of Business Research, 47(3), 191-207.

Aydin, S., Özer, G., & Arasil, Ö. (2005). Customer loyalty and the effect of switching costs as a moderator variable: A case in the Turkish mobile phone market. Marketing Intelligence & Planning, 23(1), 89-103.

Barry, J., & Terry, T. S. (2008). Empirical study of relationship value in industrial services. The Journal of Business and Industrial Marketing, 23(4), 228-241.

Barunik, J., & Vosvrda, M. (2009). Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 33(10), 1824-1836.

Brady, M. K., Knight, G. A., Cronin Jr., J.J., Tomas, G., Hult, G. T. M., & Keillor, B. D. (2005). Removing the contextual lens: A multinational, multi-setting comparison of service evaluation models. Journal of Retailing, 81(3), 215-230.