我國對中歐新興市場貿易因素之宏觀分析

A Macro Study of Trade Factors between Taiwan and Emerging Market in Central Europe

曾秀梅(Shoiw-Mei Tseng)

《明道學術論壇》 3卷1期 (2007/08) Pp. 113-131

https://doi.org/10.6953/MJ.200708.0113

摘要

本文是探討我國對共產主義原體的轉型國家之雙邊貿易因素，實證對象爲中歐新興三國波蘭、捷克及匈牙利。由100個變數萃取四大宏觀因素，包括「經濟表現」、「政府效能」、「企業效率」及「國家建設」，以複廻歸結果來評析我國對該三國貿易的差異性。結果顯示，我國對這三國貿易因素的主軸動向，對捷克值得注意我國在捷克FDI趨勢，對波蘭則是經濟表現的出口競爭力，而匈牙利除了經濟表現外，國家建設方面亦頗值關注。

關鍵字

貿易因素 ； 中歐 ； 因素分析 ； 複廻歸分析

並列摘要

This paper explores bilateral trade factors between Taiwan and transition countries which have their roots in the communism. The empirical emerging markets are Poland, Czech and Hungary in Central Europe. There are 100 variables reduced, through factor analysis, into four macro factors, which are identified as economic performance, government efficiency, business efficiency, and infrastructure. The models of multiple regression analysis show the different factors of bilateral trade between Taiwan and this three countries. We conclude with the noteworthy factors that should be concentrated in the short term, including the trend of our FDI for Czech, the economic performance of export competitiveness for Poland, and for Hungary except economic performance, infrastructure worth to be watched.

並列關鍵字

trade factors ； Central Europe ； factor analysis ； multiple regression analysis