北京2008年奧運會男子手球比賽技術之迴歸分析

The Regression Analysis on Men's Handball Competition Skills at Beijing 2008 Olympic Games

黃欽永(Ching-Yung Hwang)

《運動教練科學》 13期 (2009/03) Pp. 33-49

https://doi.org/10.6194/SCS.2009.13.02

摘要

目的：探討不同迴歸分析方法對影響手球比賽勝負的技術之差異，並比較其與手球教練的專業認知是否具有一致性，以找出最佳的預測模式，並進行迴歸診斷。方法：根據北京2008年奧運會的男子手球賽官方攻守紀錄，將其分為18個攻守技術變項，以得失分差為效標(Y)，應用逐步迴歸分析與C(p)法合併R平方法進行分析；並訪談25位國家級手球教練對影響比賽勝負的專業認知，比較其與迴歸分析結果的差異。結果：逐步迴歸分析與C(p)法合併R平方法，選入的迴歸模式均達顯著水準，逐步迴歸分析選入8個變項，與教練選入的變項有6個相同。C(p)法合併R平方法選入的變項，與教練選入的6個變項完全相同。結論：以C(p)法和R平方法所選入的6個變項，為預測手球比賽勝負模式的最佳組合，且具有良好的評估品質。

關鍵字

手球 ； 比賽技術 ； 迴歸分析

並列摘要

Purposes: By using various regression analysis methods, this study delved into how different competition skills may have influenced the results of handball games at Beijing 2008 Olympics Games to see whether handball coaches' professional opinions matched the analytical outcomes in order to find the best game prediction model for regression analysis. Method: Based on the official records of men's handball competitions at Beijing 2008 Olympics Games, 18 attack/defense skills were chosen as variables and the net game scores were taken as (Y) to conduct stepwise regression analysis under the Mallow's C(p) and R-square methods. 25 national handball coaches were interviewed to share their professional opinions on what competition skills may be crucial to win a handball game to compare their answers with regression analysis results. Results: The results gained through stepwise regression analysis and the ones through Mallow's C(p) and R-square methods both reached the required standard. Of the 8 analysis variables, 6 were unanimous with the coach variables. Of the 6 variables entered by

並列關鍵字

handball ； competition skills ； regression analysis

參考文獻

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