2013年美國職棒大聯盟影響勝場數之魔球模式探索

An Exploration of the Money Ball Theory on the Number of Wins in the Major League Baseball Season 2013

謝仁瑋(Jen-Wei Hsieh) ； 徐茂洲(Mao-Chou Hsu)

《運動教練科學》 41期 (2016/03) Pp. 9-22

https://doi.org/10.6194/SCS.2016.41.02

摘要

目的：職棒薪資不斷迅速地擴張，如何控管團隊薪資總額又能兼顧球隊戰績的經營方式自然成為顯學，而本研究目的探討之「魔球模式」在這樣的時空背景下所提出的一項經營理論。方法：偏最小平方法（partial least squares, PLS）有幾項優點如小樣本分析、形成型指標、理論模式探索分析，而本研究2013年美國大聯盟魔球模式中樣本數只有30支球隊，本研究方法以偏最小平方法（PLS）分析「上壘率」、「長打率」、「打擊率」、「得分」、「保送三振比」等五項攻擊指數來預測「勝場數」。五項攻擊指數屬於形成型指標。而魔球模式處於探索及解釋性研究，無充分理論基礎，因此本研究符合PLS的應用原則。結果：研究結果顯示僅「上壘率」顯著影響「勝場數」；並根據研究結果提出具體建議提供相關單位參考。

關鍵字

魔球 ； 美國職棒大聯盟 ； 上壘率

並列摘要

Purpose: As the salaries of professional baseball players continue to increase, determining how to manage the gross salary of the team while maintaining the competitiveness of the team has become a prominent subject. The ＂Money Ball Theory＂ that this research purpose tends to explore is a managerial theory born under this circumstance. Methods: Partial least squares (PLS) has several strengths, such as the small sample size for analysis, formative indicators and theory pattern exploratory analysis. In this study, there are only thirty teams in the 2013 Major League Baseball season. The research methods used PLS to analyze the five offensive indicators: base percentage, slugging percentage, batting average and runs, walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB/ SO), the researcher predicts that the number of wins was a formative indicator. As the Money Ball theory was still an exploratory and interpretive approach, it does not have a strong theoretical foundation, this consequently enables the research to achieve the application principle of PLS. Results: The results of the study present that only the ＂on base percentage＂ has a significant influence on the number of wins. Suggestions based on the result are also provided as reference to the relevant units.

並列關鍵字

Money Ball ； Major League Baseball ； on base percentage

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