羽球21分制比數結構與比賽勝負關係之研究－以2014年世界羽球錦標賽為例

An Outcome Analysis of 21-Point Score Structure and Winning Factors on Badminton Competitions -- A Case Study of 2014 Total World Championships

王志全(Chih-Chuan Wang)

《運動教練科學》 45期 (2017/03) Pp. 35-44

https://doi.org/10.6194/SCS.2017.45.04

摘要

目的：本研究旨在探討羽球比數結構與比賽勝負之關係，並找出羽球競賽之關鍵時刻。方法：以2014 年世界羽球錦標賽前16 強之選手為研究對象，採用標記分析法針對tournament software 官網所提供正式比賽紀錄進行資料蒐集，並以描述性統計和卡方檢定來分析比數結構與勝負關係之情形。結果：一、羽球比賽不管在兩局或三局賽事中，贏第一局的選手最終取得勝利的獲勝機率為83.7%。二、羽球比賽勝負差比數有50% 以上集中在5 分內。三、得分比數與領先分數在勝率表現上，會隨著得分比數與領先比數的增加而增加勝率，其比數在15 分後且領先對手5 分以上，勝率將達100%。四、羽球五個單項逆轉勝的賽事多數發生在領先分數為1 或2 分的情境下，並以中場11 分休息時，領先對手1 或2 分的情況下，被逆轉勝的次數為最多。結論：羽球現行21 分賽制在局數或比數落後時，想要逆轉勝的機率並不高，其當比數超過15 分後，且與對手比分差為5 分內，是影響比賽勝負的關鍵時刻，因此建議在訓練上，可安排搶5 分之訓練方式或賽制練習。

關鍵字

比數分析 ； 逆轉勝 ； 標記分析

並列摘要

Purpose: This study was to explore the relationship between score structure and outcomes on badminton matches. Also, this study endeavored to discover the wining factors at crucial moments on badminton matches. Methods: We considered the rounds of last 16 players at 2014 Total World Championships. The formal competition records from tournament software were collected and the data were analyzed by using notational analyses. Descriptive statistics and the Chi-square test were utilized as the statistical method. Results: (1) Players who won the first set were likely to win the game (at a rate of 83.7%) regardless of two-set or three-set competitions. (2) In more than 50% matches, the final scores of the two sides differed in less than 5 points. (3) The victorious rates increased as the game scores and leading scores rose. In addition, the victorious rate reached 100% whenever the players first scored 15 points and with 5 points ahead of the competitors. (4) The reversal victory games in 5 types of badminton competitions occurred when one side leaded 1 or 2 points. Furthermore, reversal victory games occurred frequently when the winning players first scored 11 points and with 1 or 2 points ahead. Conclusions: In the current 21-point competition, the probability of reversal victory was pretty low when one lost the first set or scored less. The crucial moment was the time upon which one first scored 15 points and the difference between the scores of the two sides was less than 5 points. Therefore, this study suggested the enforcement of strategic training, such as a competition to first score 5 points.

並列關鍵字

score analysis ； reversal victory ； notational analysis

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