未來學（五～六）

Futurology (5~6)

龔鵬程(Kung Peng-Cheng)

《華人前瞻研究》 17卷2期 (2021/11) Pp. 1-24

摘要

人類像奧運會的運動選手，一路跑到十九世紀，越發渴望「更高、更快、更強」。所以整體上形成一種進步意識，以此來回看歷史，遂亦發展出進步史觀。進化論即在此形勢下，應運而生：達爾文其實只談到一些生物學的小例子，後來卻一步一步變成生物的普遍生存通則；然後又被用在人類社會中，不競爭，就會被淘汰。以扭曲、誤讀、放大來遂行人的欲求，想進化到未來新世界。未來，則是一根葫蘿蔔，在生活中推著磨的驢子都以它為理想，以此而形成了未來意象，鼓舞牠繼續前進。進步意識和未來意象，是十九世紀末期以來，對世界的主要推力，帶動或產生了無數運動、學說、學科，創造了前所未有的繁榮，也激發了爭論和戰事，生靈塗炭，萬神歛手。本文就是對一百多年來「進步意識」和「未來意象」的分別考察。

關鍵字

進化論 ； 未來學 ； 信息社會 ； 達爾文 ； 嚴復

並列摘要

Human beings, like the athletes of the Olympic Games, have been running all the way to the 19th century. They gradually eager to be ＂higher, faster and stronger＂. Therefore, a progressive consciousness is formed as a whole. Under this influence, look back at history, it also developed a progressive view of history. In this situation, the theory of evolution came into being. Darwin only talked about some small examples of biology, but later it became the general rule of biological survival by degrees. Then it is used in human society. If it does not compete, it will be eliminated. The theory to distort, misread and amplify the desires of people and want to evolve into a new world in the future. The future is a carrot. The donkeys pushing the mill in life regard it as their ideal, which forms the image of the future and encourages them to move forward. The consciousness of progress and the image of the future have been the main thrust on the world since the end of the 19th century. They have driven or produced countless movements, theories and disciplines, created unprecedented prosperity, stimulated debates and wars, lost lives and restrained rescue. This paper is a separate investigation of ＂progressive consciousness＂ and ＂future image＂ in the past 100 years.

並列關鍵字

evolution ； futurology ； information society ； Darwin ； Yan Fu