Dynamic Relatedness Analysis of Two Stock Market Returns Volatility: An Empirical Study on the South Korean and Japanese Stock Markets

This paper discusses the association and the model construction of the South Korean and Japanese stock markets for the period from January 4, 1999 to December 29, 2005. This paper also utilizes Student's t distribution to analyze the proposed model. The empirical analyses indicate that there is a strong association between the South Korean and Japanese stock markets. We use a bivariate asymmetric-GARCH (1, 2) model with a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) to evaluate the association and find that there exists an asymmetrical effect between the two stock markets. The results of the empirical analyses also show that the Japanese stock market returns positively affect the South Korean stock market returns, and the volatilities of the Japanese and South Korean stock market returns interact with each other. The average value of dynamic conditional correlation of these two stock market return amounts to 0.5306. Furthermore, the South Korean and Japanese stock markets have an asymmetrical phenomenon in the sample period. The explanatory ability of the bivariate asymmetric DCC-GARCH (1, 2) model is better than the model of the bivariate DCC-GARCH model. The evidence may suggest that stock market investors or international fund managers should consider the risk of the stock price return volatility and its close connection with the stock market as they make investment decisions. In other words, in addition to considering the stability of stock market time, investors should take into consideration the foreign country stock market return volatility behavior in order to achieve the anticipated effect.

並列關鍵字

asymmetrical effect ； bivariate asymmetric-GARCH model ； constant conditional correlation ； dynamic conditional correlation ； stock market returns ； student's t distribution ； GJR-GARCH model

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