發展策略與政權體質：走向“內分－外聯”體制的中國大陸

After Developmental State and Post-Totalitarianism: China's Fragmented States and Connected Societies

耿曙(Shu Keng) ； 陳奕伶(Yi-Ling Chen)

《社會科學論叢》 2卷2期 (2008/10) Pp. 191-222

https://doi.org/10.30401/RSS.200810_2(2).0005

摘要

從中共厲行改革開放以降，便主要承受兩種力量的引導與拉扯。一方面是來自「發展轉型」的日漸浸潤，另方面則是「極權遺業」的深刻制約，在近30年不斷跌跌撞撞、偶見峰迴路轉的過程中，後者雖未掩擊挫敗後者，前者也未折服變化後者，兩者時而纏鬥不已，時而妥協讓步，有鑒於此，吳玉山乃將中國大陸的政權體質，定位為「後極權資本主義發展國家」。吳氏如此界定，自有其見地，但有關對岸政制如何演變，立場因此相對開放。針對此一議題，本專輯特意嘗試釐清，作為專輯組成之一，本文乃提出「內分－外聯」觀點，一方面作為架構，切盼有助中共政治的分析，另方面也澄清立場，或能豐富國內相關議題的討論。本文內容主要分四部分。首先在次節中，自政制轉型與能力變化角度，分析現有針對中共政權體質的討論，梳理出發展轉型、極權內捲、威權鞏固等三項觀點，一一進行檢討，並接續拈出作者所提的「內分－外聯」觀點，藉以澄清中共體制轉型的可能與方向問題。接續的第三節則將藉由兩個廣受重視的案例－怒江水壩與廈門翔鷺兩事件－說明中共黨國體制內部的分化與競合，以及社會力量如何結盟與嫁接國家能力，藉此回頭釐清作者所謂「內部競合－社會聯綴」的體制。最後一節則嘗試說明，如何根據上述架構，對中共政治進行分析與前瞻，以及其較諸其他架構所具備的優越性。

關鍵字

中國政治 ； 國家－社會關係 ； 發展型國家 ； 後極權主義 ； 威權轉型

並列摘要

The paper seeks to present an analytical framework to make sense of current Chinese politics and future transformations. In the past three decades, China has experienced dramatic transformations from planned to market society, but with the political institutions largely remaining intact. Today's China thus is dragged by two forces in almost opposing directions: one is its developmental state and the other its totalitarian institutions. The two driving forces sometime compromise and sometimes countervail each other. The Chinese state is thus characterized by Yushan Wu as the ”post-totalitarian developmental state.” But how these two forces may interact with each other and henceforce shape the China's political future? This theoretical perspective, in relation to the question, is both inconclusive and problematic. This paper, therefore, seeks to clarify the current confusions by offering the ”fragmented states, connected societies” perspective. Given that purpose, the paper is divided into four sections. Following the introduction is a critical review of the current theoretical approaches to Chinese politics. After that, we will introduce Nu River dam project and Xianglu Group's local Paraxylene (PX) chemical plant to demonstrate the weaknesses of the current approaches and the strengths of our framework. In the concluding section, we will show why how our framework may shade new light on the future of Chinese politics.

並列關鍵字

Chinese politics ； state-society relations ； post-totalitarianism ； developmental state ； transition from authoritarianism tions