結合層級分析法與模糊理論於土石流潛勢評估之研究－以陳有蘭溪集水區爲例

AHP and Fuzzy Theory Application on Debris Flow Potential Assessment-A Case Study of Chen-Yu-Lan Watershed

王虹萍(Hung-Ping Wang) ； 周天穎(Tien-Yin Chou)

《水保技術》 5卷1期 (2010/01) Pp. 13-22

https://doi.org/10.30040/JSWCT.201001.0002

摘要

台灣位於環太平洋地震帶與亞熱帶季風氣候區，每年七至九月都會受到颱風的侵襲帶來大量的豪雨；且由於台灣地理環境條件特殊、地質脆弱加以受到極端氣候影響。受到自然環境條件所致加以人爲活動之影響，更加速土石的鬆動，遂容易引發土石流災害。故此，土石流造成之嚴重性與危害度亦逐漸受到重視。土石流潛勢評估爲多個影響因素、不確定性的模糊現象以及評估量化之問題。本研究結合層級分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process；AHP)與模糊理論(Fuzzy Theory)，提出一套運用於土石流潛勢評估之模糊多準則決策方法。透過權重分析得知，颱風豪雨對土石流潛勢之影響權重爲最大；其次，爲土石料源、集水區地形，而歷史災害權重最小。以2008年卡玫基颱風事件進行模式驗證，研究發現南投076潛勢溪流屬於高潛勢，證明本評估模式於颱風來臨前對土石流潛勢之判斷可達到初步之預警效果。

關鍵字

土石流潛勢 ； 層級分析法 ； 模糊理論

並列摘要

The special environment and the geographical location in Taiwan lead to the steep topography and fragile geology conditions. In addition, the impact of the global climate change and the fierce climate status result in significant natural disaster such as typhoons, earthquake, landslides and debris flow. Debris flow potential assessment is a many influencing factors, the fuzzy situation of uncertainty and quantitative assessment problem. In this study, by cooperating AHP method and Fuzzy Theory as a method of Multi Criteria Decision Making, MCDM infer the relations and weights among each parameter. Finally, using the actually debris flow events to identify the reliability. By using this model, it can find that this model has a preliminary forecast effect before typhoons coming and provide the debris flow potential in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Debris Flow Potential ； Analytic Hierarchy Process AHP ； Fuzzy Theory