應用模糊多準則決策於台灣地區海運承攬運送業複合運送合作夥伴風險評估之研究

A Research on Application of Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision Making for the Cooperation Partner Risk Evaluation of Multi-modal Transport for Ocean Freight Forwarders in Taiwan

周貞慧(Chen-Hui Chou) ； 張弘宗(Hung-Chung Chang) ； 張淑滿(Shu-Man Chang)

《台北海洋技術學院學報》 6卷2期 (2015/03) Pp. 158-181

摘要

海運承攬運輸業在活絡我國的經濟發展上，一直扮演著舉足輕重的角色。面對競爭激烈且經營環境變化日趨詭譎的航運市場，為了要滿足託運人無縫隙運輸需求和提高競爭優勢，複合運送合作聯盟儼然是一種有效的策略。然合作總有許多無可掌握的潛在風險，期確保合作聯盟的成功和規避合作夥伴的風險，因此尋求一個評估海運承攬運輸業複合運送合作夥伴合作風險的演算法即成為研究的重要的課題。本研究探討海運承攬運送業者經營複合運送時所可能面臨之合作風險，以可能性程度的概念為基礎，發展一個模糊多準則決策的演算法，以為海運承攬業的複合運送夥伴進行合作風險評估的實證研究。首先，簡介應用於發展本研究所提出的模糊多準則決策演算法之模糊集合理論的概念與方法，接著，配合複合運送合作夥伴風險之評估的研究問題，建構出一個包含準則與評選方案的層級架構，然後，利用本研究所提出的演算法，篩選出合作夥伴風險評估準則、計算所有評選方案之整合模糊的適當指標，和建立複合運送合作夥伴的風險評估模式，進而選擇風險最低的複合運送合作夥伴；最後以模擬一評估實例來說明本研究所提風險評估模式的操作過程。

關鍵字

分析層級程序法 ； 模糊多準則決策 ； 複合運送 ； 合作風險

並列摘要

In order to meet the transport needs of shippers seamless and improve competitive advantage, cooperation alliance seems is an effective strategy. However, in any cooperation partner, there are always inherent risks and potential structural and cultural incompatibilities. To ensure the successful cooperation and to avoid the risk from cooperation alliance partner, finding an algorithm for the cooperation risk evaluation of multi-modal transport partner of ocean freight forwarders has become an important research topic. This study investigates that the ocean freight forwarders may face cooperation risks of multi-modal transport partner, expect to develop a fuzzy multi-criteria decision making (FMCDM) algorithm based on the concept of possibility extent and to survey an empirical study of evaluating cooperation risk of multi-modal transport partner for ocean freight forwarders in Taiwan. Using the algorithm proposed in this study were selected partner risk assessment guidelines, calculate the appropriate selection of programs to integrate all indicators of vague, and the establishment of multi-modal transport partner risk assessment model, and then choose the lowest risk of multi-modal transport partners. Finally, to simulate a numerical example of cooperation partner risk evaluation of multi-modal transport for an ocean freight forwarder is used to illustrate our evaluative process.

並列關鍵字

Analytic Hierarchy Process ； Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making ； Multi-Modal Transport ； Cooperation risk

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