蘭陽溪流域之山崩土石流潛在危害預測

Potential Landslide and Debris Flow Hazard Prediction in the Lanyang River Basin

李錫堤(Chyi-Tyi Lee) ； 費立沅(Li-Yuan Fei)

《前瞻科技與管理》 1卷2期 (2011/11) Pp. 67-83

摘要

本研究以蘭陽溪流域為例，以多變量分析中的羅吉斯迴歸方法分別進行山崩潛感分析及土石流潛感分析。潛感分析結果進一步建立崩壞比曲線及土石流發生比曲線，藉以將潛感值轉換為機率值，供建立機率分布圖。所建立的模型可以用來預估某一降雨量分布下之淺層滑動型山崩機率分布及某一溪流發生土石流的可能性，供集水區山崩與土石流潛勢評估暨土砂災害評估之用。

關鍵字

山崩 ； 土石流 ； 土砂生產量 ； 潛感分析 ； 羅吉斯迴歸

並列摘要

This study investigates a robust procedure for event-based landslide susceptibility analysis through a case study in the Lanyang River drainage basin, northern Taiwan. It includes: how to select a landslide inventory for analysis? How to select landslide causative factors? How to build a susceptibility model? How to validate the model? How to transfer the susceptibility value to landslide probability? And how to use the model for predicting sediments yield? The landslide susceptibility model built in this way may be used in a storm scenario by given an hourly rainfall distribution and total rainfall distribution in the study region and predict shallow landslides as well as debris-flow streams in the region. These models are feasible for use in landslide, debris flow, and sediment yields in a drainage basin.

並列關鍵字

landslide ； debris-flow ； sediment yield ； susceptibility analysis ； logistic regression

參考文獻

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