台北港與基隆港之海嘯風險評估

The Tsunami Risk Assessment of Taipei and Keelung Harbors

陳冠宇(Guan-Yu Chen) ； 邱永芳(Yung-Fang Chiu) ； 姚建中(Chien-Chung Yao) ； 連政佳(Cheng-Chia Lien) ； 劉俊志(Chin-Chu Liu) ； 林敬樺(Jing-Hua Lin)

《前瞻科技與管理》 2卷2期 (2012/11) Pp. 147-166

摘要

本文主要研究目的是提出一種海嘯風險評估之流程，並以海底地震所引起海嘯作為探討對象，評估未來50年內台北港及基隆港受海嘯侵襲之風險值。應用Gutenberg and Richter（1944）提出地震規模與再現頻率關係式（G-R關係式），並定義海源地震且地震深度小於30公里為海嘯發生條件，求得海嘯地震次數期望值。使用COMCOT模式（Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami model）的線性淺水波方程模擬海嘯在大洋的傳播，應用互逆格林函數（reciprocal Green's function）概念，節省COMCOT在模擬海嘯傳遞的計算時間，再代入地震解參數以斷層模式計算地震引發的海嘯初始水位分佈，模擬台北港及基隆港外海水位變化。海嘯對陸地溢淹則以不同波高之鐘形波垂直台北港岸線入射，求得不同程度海嘯溢淹範圍，並定義溢淹機率。最後將海嘯地震次數期望值與不同程度地震發生海嘯造成的溢淹機率相乘，求得台北港及基隆港未來50年內受海嘯侵襲且溢淹的機率。

關鍵字

溢淹機率 ； 海嘯數值模式 ； 海嘯風險

並列摘要

The main topic of this research is the impact to the tsunami-inundated area of Taipei and Keelung harbors caused by earthquakes. According to regression relationship (G-R relation) between the earthquake magnitude and frequency proposed by Gutenberg and Richter (1944), the expected number of tsunamigenic earthquake is estimated. Using the linear shallow water equations of COMCOT (Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami model), the propagation of tsunami in the ocean is simulated, and the reciprocal Green's function was applied to save the computing time of COMCOT model. Then, the seismic solution parameters are substituted to acquire a water level distribution of tsunami. Solitary waves of different wave height are used to compute the range and the probability of tsunami inundation at Taipei and Keelung Harbors.

並列關鍵字

inundation probability ； tsunami numerical model ； tsunami risk

參考文獻

＜資料申請＞，2006年6月，《海洋資料庫》，（瀏覽日期：2012 年10 月15 日）

Gutenberg B and Richter CF, 1944, “Frequency of Earthquake in California,” Bulletin of the Seismollogical Society of America, 34, 185-188

National Geophysical Data Center, n.d., “Natural Hazards Data, Images and Education,” National Geophysical Data Center, (accessed October 1, 2012 )

The Global Centroid-Moment-Tensor Project, April 6, 2011, Global CMT Web Page, (accessed September 23, 2012)

US Geological Survey-National Earthquake Information Center (USGS-NEIC), March 2, 2012, “Global Earthquake Search,” Earthquake Hazard Program, (accessed September 23, 2012)