国际石油价格波动对中国经济的冲击—基于一个可计算一般均衡（CGE）的分析

A CGE Analysis of Rising Oil Prices Effect on China's Economic Impact

刘亦文(Zong-Yi Hu) ； 胡宗义(Yi-Wen Liu) ； 戴钰(Yu Dai)

《Journal of Data Analysis》 4卷3期 (2009/06) Pp. 59-75

https://doi.org/10.6338/JDA.200906_4(3).0004

摘要

一直以来，国际油价的频繁波动对经济发展造成了极为深刻的负面影响并引起了经济学家的广泛关注。从国际石油价格2003年一路攀升至147美元的历史高位，但在金融风暴持续蔓延、全球经济滑坡导致需求下降等因素共同作用下跌至目前的40美元左右，跌幅超过70%。国际油价波动对中国经济各部门产生了强烈的市场冲击。油价波动对中国宏观经济影响如何？其影响程度有多深？本文利用中国CGE模型－MCHUGE模型，研究油价波动对中国经济发展的影响。研究结果表明，油价上涨对中国经济的影响是有利有弊的。本文列出分析了因油价上涨而冲击较大的产业。在此基础上，我们提出了一些政策建议。

關鍵字

石油价格 ； CGE模型 ； MCHUGE模型

並列摘要

The international petroleum prices has been the frequent fluctuations and caused by a very profound negative impact in on economic development and cause widespread concern economists. International oil prices from rising in 2003 to the historical high of 147 U.S. dollars, but in the continued spread of financial turmoil, the global economic downturn led to a drop in demand factors such as the current dropped to about 40 U.S. dollars, or more than 70%. The international oil price fluctuations of the various sectors of the economy in our country have had a strong impact on the market. Oil price volatility on China's macro-economic impact? The extent of how deep its impact? In this paper, the use of CGE model of China-MCHUGE model, oil price volatility on China's economic development. surge ahead of our economic departments, the strong market shocks. The results show that oil price volatility on the Chinese economy has both advantages and disadvantages of the impact. This article sets out an analysis of the impact of oil price volatility due to the larger industries. On this basis, we made a number of policy recommendations.

並列關鍵字

oil prices ； CGE model ； MCHUGE model

參考文獻

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