健康產品產業顧客流失管理：應用機率分配模型觀點

本研究藉由顧客過去的交易資料，利用BG/NBD模型預測個別顧客未來的交易次數與活躍機率，特別關注於尋找需要重新制定行銷策略的對象，並且留住現有客源、提升顧客流失管理效率。研究資料為台灣某健康產品購物網站非訂定契約型顧客的交易資訊，分析對於某項具稱保肝類的保健食品的重複購買次數、最近一次購買時間、與購買後歷經的時間。研究結果顯示該機率分配模型可提供有效預測，且顧客活躍機率與購買總金額之間具有顯著統計差異。研究也建議廠商必須針對活躍機率的變化擬定適當的顧客甦醒方案，俾將顧客關係管理進行更有效地整合與運用。

關鍵字

BG/NBD模型；顧客活躍機率；顧客流失管理

並列摘要

This research uses the e-commerce transaction database to forecast customer's future behavior and active probability based on the BG/NBD model. The individual-level forecasting results help to identify customized needs, which help company to re-formulate marketing strategies, to retain existing customer base, and to increase efficiency of customer churn management. The calibrated data set includes non-contractual customers who made purchases on particular hepatic capsule with the repeat purchase frequency and purchase timing. Results indicate the proposed model is reliable in individualized forecasting to differentiate significantly the active probability and transaction total monetary. The results suggest the company should design adequate customer ＂awakening＂ programs for those inactive customers and to efficacious customer relationship management to integrate enterprise resources to the targeted individuals.

並列關鍵字

BG/NBD Model ； Customer Active Probability ； Customer Churn Manage

參考文獻

謝汶進、塗婉吟(2008)。顧客關係管理之重覆購買行為預測模式。行銷評論。5(2)，197-220。

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健康產品產業顧客流失管理：應用機率分配模型觀點

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