中國因應人口結構轉變之政策分析：以推動港澳臺居住證為例

The Analysis of the Change of Population Structure in China: China's Resident Certificate Policy for Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan Example

蔡承翰(Cheng-Han Tsai)

《亞洲政經與和平研究》 7期 (2021/08) Pp. 77-95

摘要

政治人口學（political demography）主要在研究人口結構的轉變對政治與經濟面向的影響。在全球逐漸邁入老年化的趨勢中，當國家的人口結構逐漸步入老年化社會（aging society）時，國家的經濟生產力（economic productivity）就會受到影響，進而使經濟表現衰退。因此國家會採取相應政策來避免國家的經濟產值受到人口結構轉變的衝擊。例如，開放外國勞工、延長退休年齡限制等相關因應措施。近年來中國在面臨少子化與高齡化的人口結構轉變下，也開始採取相關政策來因應。本文以中國各省的資料來分析，在控制其他變數後發現，當國家的15－64歲工作人口逐漸增加時，對國家經濟產值有正面貢獻。而人力資本愈多也可以促進經濟表現。而撫養比愈高，對各省經濟表現則有負面影響。同時本文以中國大陸的人口結構轉型為基礎並以此分析中國對臺灣所施行的港澳臺居住證政策對中國與臺灣未來經濟發展的影響。本文認為在中國在面臨少子化與高齡化的人口結構轉變下，長期下來，港澳臺居住證政策有利於中國維持人口結構的穩定並維持其經濟發展。

關鍵字

政治人口學 ； 經濟表現 ； 15－64歲工作人口 ； 撫養比 ； 少子化

並列摘要

Political demography focuses on how population size affects the political-economic field. The increase of the aging population will let countries into an aging society; hence, it will harm economic productivity in the long run. To alleviate the impact of the aging-population structure on economic performance, governments adopt relevant policies to face the coming challenge, such as importing foreign laborers and extending retirement age. In recent years, China has adopted specific policies to the coming of low birth rate and aging society. In this article, controlling other variables, I apply the data from the provinces of China and figure out that the increase of the working-age population (15-64 years old) has a positive contribution to economic productivity. Besides, human capital positively contributes to economic performance. The increase of dependency ratio has a negative contribution to economic productivity. Further, I utilize China's Resident Certificate Policy for Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan to analyze how it affects China and Taiwan (R.O.C) from the political demography perspective. Based on the empirical results in this article, to a certain degree, I suggest that China's Resident Certificate Policy for Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan can alleviate the impact of the low birth rate and aging society. Moreover, it can sustain the stability of the population structure and economic growth.

並列關鍵字

political demography ； low birth rate ； economic performance ； working-age population ； dependency ratio