氣候變遷下中國因應減碳和抗暖之策略選擇

China's Strategy Choices in Response to Carbon Emissions Reduction and Warming Suppression under Climate Change

譚偉恩(Wei-En Tan)

《亞洲政經與和平研究》 10期 (2022/08) Pp. 75-106

摘要

論及氣候變遷，國家不論地理位置、政體類型、經濟水平，以及科研水準，在全球暖化的影響下，隨時可能成為極端氣候之受難者；數次深受水患之苦的中國如是，曾飽嘗風災和雪災重創的美國亦復如是。據此，中美兩國確實面臨共同但又無法獨自克服之安全威脅，應有攜手減碳和共同抗暖的空間。與此同時，北京當局正承受日益升高的碳排減量壓力，使得領導人習近平於聯合國公開表示，中國將在2060年前實現碳中和，同時承諾要在2030年前達到國家碳排放之峰值。基於當前的產業結構、經濟發展，以及能源消費情況，本文認為中國要獨自實現其領導人宣稱之目標，可能性甚微。然而，即便如此，中國因應減碳和抗暖的策略選擇仍不太可能是與美國合作，而是要設法避免美歐針對它組成碳稅聯盟。此外，本文發現，一個競爭而非合作的美中關係未必有礙於全球暖化的治理，反而可能促成中國在商品製造上從耗能型模式轉向低碳型模式。

關鍵字

氣候變遷 ； 全球暖化 ； 國際合作 ； 碳排量 ； 美國 ； 中國

並列摘要

When it comes to climate change, regardless of differences in geographical location, regime type, economic development, and scientific level, all countries under the influence of global warming may become a victim of extreme weather at any time. This is the case happened in China, which has suffered from floods several times, and in the United States, which has been seriously hit by hurricanes and snowstorms. Accordingly, China and the United States do face common threats that cannot be overcome alone, and there should be room for joint efforts to reduce carbon emissions and fight global warming. At the same time, Beijing is under increasing pressure to cut carbon emissions, leading President Xi Jinping to publicly state at the United Nations that China will make the country carbon-neutral before 2060 and aim to have carbon emissions peak before 2030. Based on the current industrial structure, economic development, and energy consumption, it is highly unlikely that China will achieve the goals declared by its leader. Even so, China's strategic choice in response to carbon emissions reduction and warming suppression is unexpected to cooperate with the United States, but to fully avoid the United States and Europe forming a carbon tariff alliance against it to the greatest extent. Further, this paper finds dthat a competitive U.S.-China interaction, instead of a cooperative one, may not hinder the governance of global warming. By contrast, it may facilitate China's transition from an energy-consuming approach to a low-carbon approach in commodities manufacturing.

並列關鍵字

Climate Change ； Global Warming ； International Cooperation ； Carbon Dioxide Emissions ； United States ； China