從Covid-19演變初探習近平決策思維

據中國大陸官方論述，大陸以優異疾病監測系統及科學驅動的公衛方法在2020年1月初前在武漢應對新型冠狀病毒時，即能迅速識別並採取行動，獲得良好成效。然病毒不斷變種，各國不斷調整防疫策略，總書記習近平仍要求黨及各級政府官員落實「動態清零」措施，爰本文欲探究大陸領導人在面對社會動盪、經濟下滑及國際局勢上大型傳染病時的決策邏輯就是以「維穩」為重，及以習近平為核心的「中國式」防控措施也讓我們觀察到大陸極權體制的優劣，優者全國一盤棋且迅速有效，劣者即長於統治而拙于治理。其精準防疫策略的核心在於抵禦變種病毒的侵襲下不若鞏固其領導地位重要。文獻中有學者從經濟發展、產業模式、公共衛生、醫院管理或危機處理等層面向討論，甚少從其決策層面研究大陸高層在處理疫情時的思維，本文欲研析大陸堅持動態清零的政策，提出建言，並輔以其防控模式急轉彎進行論述。

關鍵字

新冠肺炎；維穩；動態清零；精準防疫；鞏固領導

並列摘要

According to Chinese officials, China's excellent disease surveillance system and scientifically-driven public health approach were effective in identifying and acting quickly on the novel coronavirus in Wuhan by early January 2020. I would like to explore the logical mindset of the decision making of the leaders of the Mainland in the face of social unrest, economic downturn and large infectious diseases in the international arena. The best is a nationwide system that is swift and effective, while the worst is a system that is long on rule but poor on governance. The core of its precise prevention and control strategy is that it is not as important to defend against mutated viruses as it is to consolidate its leadership position. In the literature, some scholars have discussed the issue at the level of economic development, industrial model, public health, hospital management or crisis management, but seldom have they studied the thinking of the leadership management of the Mainland in dealing with the Covid-19 at its policy-making level.

並列關鍵字

novel coronavirus ； stability ； dynamic zero ； targeted measures ； consolidation of leadership

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