廠商投資中國對台灣電子業產出的影響

Investment in China and its Effects on the production of Taiwanese Electronics Industry

褚泳君(CHU YUNG CHUN)

指導教授 ： 毛慶生

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201800280

摘要

1960年代以來台灣經濟歷經勞力密集、資本密集、技術密集等階段，經濟快速發展，透過外銷，台灣成為全球代工製造的重要基地。但1980年代後，台幣大幅升值以及工資不斷上漲，廠商的生產成本大幅增加，加上勞動力短缺，許多「傳統勞力密集」產業逐漸喪失價格競爭優勢，開始對外投資以求生存發展。相對地，中國大陸也從1979年起實行改革開放政策，憑藉著廣大的土地、廉價的勞動力、豐富的自然資源等，吸引了大量的台商投資，本文以台灣電子業分析對象，探討1994至2016年期間；廠商投資中國大陸對上下游電子業產出的影響。主要結論摘要如下:
一、電子零組件製造業:
電子零組件屬於上游電子業，其產出變動主要受前期投資中國金額成長率及新台幣兌換美金匯率變動的影響。其中，台幣貶值對產出有正向影響關係。而投資中國金額成長率對產出有負向影響，亦廠商赴中國大陸投資已開始不利於產出，投資環境已失去優勢。
二、電腦、電子產品及光學製品製造業:
電腦、電子產品及光學製造屬於下游電子產業，其產出變動主要受前期台灣出口香港訂單成長率、生產總額成長率、中國出口值成長率的影響。其中，台灣出口香港訂單成長率及生產總額成長率對產出有正向影響。而中國出口對產出有負向影響關係，中國的出口已影響該產業的生產，而本土陸資企業 (紅色供應鏈) 開始逐漸取而代之；中國出口的增加，不再是相同方向的助力。

關鍵字

投資中國 ； 對外投資 ； 國際分工 ； 產業產出 ； 海外生產

並列摘要

Since the 1960s, Taiwan’s economy has experienced labor-intensive, capital-intensive, and technology-intensive phases, and the economy has developed rapidly. Through export, Taiwan has become an important base for global OEM manufacturing. However, after the 1980s, the Taiwan dollar saw a sharp appreciation and wages continued to rise. The production costs of manufacturers increased sharply. Coupled with the shortage of power, many “traditional power-intensive” industries gradually lost their price competitive advantages and began to invest abroad in order to survive and develop. In contrast, mainland China has also implemented a policy of reform and opening up since 1979. With a large amount of land, cheap motive power, and abundant natural resources, it has attracted a large number of Taiwanese businessmen to invest. This article explores the object of Taiwan's electronics industry and explores 1994. During 2016, the influence of manufacturers investing in mainland China on the output of upstream and downstream electronics industry. The main conclusions are summarized as follows:
1.The electronic components manufacturing industry:
The electronic components belong to the upstream electronics industry, and the changes in output are mainly affected by the growth rate of the previous investment in China and the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar to the US dollar. Among them, the depreciation of the Taiwan dollar has a positive impact on output. The investment in China’s growth rate has a negative impact on output, and the investment of Chinese companies in mainland China has begun to be detrimental to output, and the investment environment has lost its advantage.
2.Computer, electronic products and optical products manufacturing:
Computers, electronic products and optical manufacturing belong to the downstream electronics industry. The change in output is mainly affected by the growth rate of orders from Taiwan's exports to Hong Kong in the previous period, the growth rate of total production, and the growth rate of China's export value. Among them, Taiwan's export Hong Kong order growth rate and total production growth rate have a positive impact on output. While China's exports have a negative impact on output, China's exports have affected the production of the industry, while local land-based enterprises (red supply chains) have gradually replaced them; the increase in China's exports is no longer the same direction.

並列關鍵字

Investment in China ； Foreign investment ； International division of labor ； Industrial output ； Overseas production

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