印度尼西亞的房地產業對該國經濟增長的效果與其風險

The analytic approach to the effect and risk of the real estate business in INDONESIA

李映旻(Young-Min LEE)

指導教授 ： 連勇智

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/國際企業學研究所/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU201700872

摘要

近些年，印度尼西亞大力推進經濟轉型，力推“六大經濟走廊”建設，深度調整經濟結構，經濟發展轉向主要由內需拉動，增長率連續9年保持在5%～6%的水平。隨著印度尼西亞經濟走勢強勁，印度尼西亞的房地產業繼續同步增長。受利好經營環境的影響，企業的快速擴張帶動了對辦公空間的旺盛需求，引發分層辦公用房價和租金大幅增長。零售業也體現出類似的走勢，國內外零售商競相瓜分印度尼西亞家庭日益增長的購買力與消費力而積極擴大各大自在印度尼西亞“版圖”。此外，由於不斷擴大的中產階級人口及低利率環境，因此住宅市場在中檔住宅及豪宅需求的帶動下也迅猛增長。核心通貨膨脹率一直穩定在5%以下，幫助將借貸成本控制在較低水平。
對印度尼西亞房地產業的增長與國民經濟，本文進行大致以下三個研究分析：
第一、印度尼西亞房地產業與該國經濟增長的關係。本部分採取全面統計分析方法得出房地產開發、生產與消費對印度尼西亞經濟的效果；
第二、印度尼西亞房地產的泡沫現況。本部分利用相關數據統計與判斷房地產泡沫的計算公式得出分析印度尼西亞房地產市場的泡沫程度及關注點；
第三、對房地產經濟的範圍和內涵進行科學界定，在此基礎上從三個領完整地定量分析房地產對印度尼西亞國民經濟增長的作用。此結果表明：為了保障國民經濟健康穩定增長，應保持房地產經濟的合理作用以及完整的政策。

關鍵字

印度尼西亞 ； 房地產 ； 國民經濟 ； 典型相關分析

並列摘要

The Indonesian economy is on the rise. Although facing many challenges，as the largest country in southeast Asia，Indonesia has great political and economic potential to become the emerging Asia- Pacific economy as China and India.
Indonesia’s property sector continues to grow in tandem with the country’s strong economic performance over the past few years. Strong demand for office space is supported by rapid corporate expansion on the back of a favorable business environment, triggering significant increase on prices of strata office space and office rents. A similar trend is being seen for retail space, as local and foreign retailers aggressively expand their presence in Indonesia as they compete to capture the increasing purchasing power and spending of Indonesian households. The residential market has also grown rapidly in response to increasing demand for mid-level and luxury property, supported by the expanding middle class and a low interest rate environment. Investor confidence has grown over the past several years as the Indonesian investment climate continues to improve. Indonesia’s property sector is expected to continue benefiting from these favorable conditions. The objects of the study on the relationship between the growth of realestate industry and the economic development in Indonesia in the paper is largerly divided into three parts:
1.Analyzing relationships between the three parts of the realestate business and the economic growth. In the part, the author adopted the contribution rate to analyze the relationships between the realesate business and GDP, also backward quantity correlation between realestate and other industries for Indonesia. By the related materials, this paper provides quantity ciriterions for the harmonized development of realestate and national economy.

2.A Study on the possbility of the real estate bubble in Indonesia. The author used statistics and the theory and methods of analyzing the grade of the bubble to provide a systematic definition of current situation of the real estate economy in Indonesia. The results show that which parts the Indonesian government should handle immediately to efficiently manage the local realestate market.

3.The author used the theory and the research data to provide a scientific definition of the scale and implications of the Indonesian real estate economy. On this basis, I undertook a comprehensive quantitative anlysis of the effect of the local real estate on the growth of the Indonesian Economy. The results show that reasonable growth in real estate is of great significance for the healthy development of the economy. To keep the Indonesian economy growing steadily, the government need to maintain reasonable growth in the real estate economy.

並列關鍵字

Indonesia ； Real Estate ； National Economy ； Canonical Correlation

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