體育博弈市場的商業機制

體育博弈市場商機無限，國外體育博弈市場體制完善。本研究希望能把國外完整的商業機制推廣至國內平台，使國內平台更蓬勃發展。研究透過模擬博弈平台的賠率開發、營運規則公式化、以及商業機制的建立。思考何種分配符合比賽類型，研究決定採用Poisson difference distribution建立賠率模擬模型，參數是否符合球隊近況，最後透過統計檢定檢驗資料是否合用。研究的核心為探討博弈平台的營運原理，讓該原理公式化，得出只要各項比賽結果的機率比相等於下注者的下注金分佈比，即可使平台資金流通順暢。而博弈平台的收入為抽成總注金，本研究亦把抽成規則公式化，對於博弈平台的營運更有了解。而實際資料是否符合前述研究中得出的比例規則，結果雖與實際資料頗有差異，但進而發現五五波的比賽最符合比例規則，於是研究目標轉為是否能把其他賽局都能轉變為五五波的賽局，讓分盤商業機制的概念就此浮現。透過以機率模型為基礎的邏輯推演，使讓分機制的流程標準化，能推廣應用至更多層面。

關鍵字

體育博弈市場；商業機制；制定賠率；營運規則；讓分制度

並列摘要

There are many business opportunities in sports betting market. Foreign sports betting platforms are good; therefore, this study hopes to complete commercial mechanisms and improve domestic platforms through learning from foreign advantages. The study discusses the platforms by simulating game odds of developing, formulating operating rules, and establishing commercial mechanisms. To figure out which distributions are appropriate to sports games, the study decided to establish odds by using Poisson difference distribution model and also tested if the data was proper by statistical tests. This study develops the operating principles of platforms to formulate the principles. The result shows that the platforms can be operated by the ratio of each game result probability equaling to the ratio of each game result stake. Platforms make profits by commission on total stake. The actual data test whether are identical with the ratio rules, but the actual data are different with the rules. In this process, research found that fifty-fifty ratio fits the ratio rules, so the goal of this study is to make other games become fifty-fifty games. Run line mechanism was introduced in this study. The mechanism was established by logical inference and deduction, so that this study standardized run line mechanism process, which can be applied in other dimensions.

並列關鍵字

sports betting market ； commercial mechanisms ； develop odds ； operation rule ； run line mechanism

參考文獻

2.Dimitris Karlis (2003), analysis of sports data by using bivariate Poisson models, Journal of Royal Statistic society, 2003, vol.52, part 3,pp 382-383.

中文文獻

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1.黃文璋（2007）。從賠率到機率。科學發展，411，pp 66-71

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英文文獻

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1.Dimitris Karlis (2003), “the Poisson distribution has been widely accepted as a simple modeling approach for the distribution of the number of goals in sports involving two competing teams”, analysis of sports data by using bivariate Poisson models, Journal of Royal Statistic society, 2003, vol.52, part 3,p381.

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國際替代計量

體育博弈市場的商業機制

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