營收、陸客來台及出國人數對鳳凰旅遊股價影響之研究

The Impact of Monthly Revenue, Numbers of Chinese Visitors and Taiwanese Oversea Travelers on Phoenix Tours’ Share Price

吳詠航(Debby Wu)

指導教授 ： 謝德宗

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/經濟學研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.10027

摘要

本文探討鳳凰旅遊股價受到加權指數、公司月營收、陸客來台人數以及台灣出國人數影響，旨在探討馬英九總統2008年當選後，政府開放陸客來台政策是否對台灣觀光業有利多效益。使用研究方法包括單根檢定、Granger因果關係檢定、向量自我迴歸模型 (Vector Autoregressive Model, VAR)以及衝擊反應分析 (impulse response analysis)；實證期間為馬政府2008年7月開放陸客來台至2011年8月陸客自由行初步實行，選用各變數的月資料進行實證。
實證因受到資料點較少限制，採用AIC所建議的落後三期進行分析，所得結果如下：
(1) 陸客來台人數正向領先鳳凰股價，可用來預測鳳凰股價，不過對月營收影響不顯著；在衝擊反應上，鳳凰旅遊股價對陸客來台人數波動的反應，在第二期出現衝擊並達到最大正向反應，在第四期之後就幾乎沒有影響，影響時間不長。
(2) 出國人數正向領先鳳凰月營收，可用來預測鳳凰月營收；在衝擊反應上，鳳凰月營收對出國人數變動會迅速在當期反應，並在第二期達到最大正向反應，之後影響逐漸消失，大約在第十期後回到穩定狀態。
(3) 可能因樣本時間點不足的資料限制情形，目前實證尚未能驗證陸客來台人數對鳳凰月營收有顯著影響。

關鍵字

陸客來台 ； 單根檢定 ； Granger因果關係 ； 向量自我迴歸模型 ； 衝擊反應分析

並列摘要

This essay examines the impact of the Taiwan weighted index, the numbers of Chinese visitors to Taiwan and Taiwanese oversea travelers, and the monthly company revenue on the Phoenix Tours’ share price. The purpose of this study is to decide whether Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou’s policy to allow Chinese nationals to visit Taiwan starting July 2008 has a positive effect on the local tourism industry. The following quantitative methods are used: unit root test, Granger causality test, vector autoregressive model, and impulse response analysis. This study uses monthly data points from July 2008 when Taiwan opened itself up for mainland visitors in large groups, to August 2001 when the island was into first months of allowing individual Chinese tourists to travel unaccompanied.
This study is limited by the relatively small sample of data points available, and the empirical analysis uses a three-period lag suggested by the Akaike information criterion. It has the following conclusions:
1. The number of mainland visitors to Taiwan leads Phoenix Tours’ share price movement, but its impact on the company’s monthly revenue is not significant. Phoenix Tours’ share price starts to show an impulse response to a change in the number of mainland visitors in the second period, and the impact also reaches its highest during the period. The impact ceases after the fourth period.
2. The number of Taiwanese oversea travelers leads Phoenix Tours’ monthly revenue. Phoenix Tours’ monthly revenue starts to show an impulse response to the number of Taiwanese oversea travelers during the same period a change happens to the number of travelers. The impact reaches its highest in the second period, then starts to fade and returns to a steady state in the tenth period.
3. The empirical results of this study do not show the number of Chinese visitors to Taiwan has a significant impact on Phoenix Tours’ monthly revenue probably because the amount of data points available is limited at the time of writing.

並列關鍵字

Chinese visitors to Taiwan ； unit root test ； Granger causality ； vector autoregressive model ； impulse response analysis

參考文獻

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