本文主要係評估美國在台海地區對中共嚇阻之可信性,並以一九九六年與一九九九年兩次台海危機為關注焦點。本研究設計一套分析架構檢驗美國對中共嚇阻之可信度。該分析架構,首先以言論與行動取向分析美國對中共嚇阻之決心為何?以瞭解美國是否有足夠的決心,捍衛台灣安全。再以言論與行動取向分析,中共對美國所發出之嚇阻訊號的認知為何?以評估美國對中共嚇阻的可信度。 本研究運用此架構分析一九九六年與一九九九年兩次台海危機發現,雖然美國在該兩次台海危機並沒有展現一致強烈的嚇阻決心,但中共在認知層面皆展現認知到美國嚇阻決心,進而採取退讓行動使現狀得以維持,因此本文認為美國對中共嚇阻具有相當可信度。但本研究發現在測量中共認知過程中,大多數時期皆出現沒有認知到或認知程度不夠之訊號,本文認為一方面係受台灣為中共核心國家利益之因素影響,另一方面係受到美國採取逐步升高嚇阻所致。因此,美國在台海地區實施雙重嚇阻與再保證戰略,降低中共不安全感將有助於突破中共認知層面的盲點。 故本研究結論認為,未來只要美國繼續強調不支台灣獨立,並反對以武力解決「台灣問題」,另一方面台灣不在國家統獨定位上採取冒進政策,美國在台海地區對中共嚇阻將具有相當可信度。
The goal of the study is to assess the credibility of the U.S. deterrence to China in the Taiwan Strait, particular focusing on the 1996 and 1999 Taiwan Strait Crises. The analytical framework of this study is to devise a test of the credibility of the U.S. deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. Firstly, to use words and action-dimension to analyze the U.S. deterrence to China's determination, and to test Washington’s determination to defend Taiwan's security. Secondly, to use this framework to test China’s perception, and to assess the credibility of the U.S. deterrence. This study employs this framework to explore the credibility of the U.S. deterrence to China during 1996 and 1999 Taiwan Strait crises. We find that although United States did not show the same strong determination to deter China in the 1999 as that in 1996, China did perceive the U.S. determination eventually and took action to maintain the status quo. However, this study finds that during the most period of time China did not perceive the U.S. determination due to her unacceptable loss of Taiwan as Beijing’s core interests and American strategy of gradual escalation. The use of dual deterrence and reassurance by the U.S. in the Taiwan Strait is able to reduce the sense of insecurity of Beijing and help resolve the problem of perception. This study therefore concludes that if the U.S. continues to resist supporting Taiwan independence, and opposing the use of force to settle the Taiwan issue, while Taiwan does not provoke Beijing, the credibility of American deterrence to China will be assured.