台灣女性初婚率的世代變遷與教育落差

Trends in Educational Differentials in Marriage Formation among Taiwanese Women

張怡娟(Yi-Chuan Chang)

指導教授 ： 李瑞中

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/社會學研究所/碩士(2010年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2010.00343

摘要

本論文區分「晚婚」與「不婚」的概念來分析台灣的經驗現象，試圖檢驗「隨著女性經濟獨立性提升，女性益發不願意走入婚姻」此一假設。第一部份之分析以教育作為女性經濟獨立性之指標，分析高教育程度女性是否較易「晚婚」和「不婚」；第二部份之分析再進一步檢驗「不同教育程度台灣女性在結婚行為上的落差，是否完全來自於其經濟潛力差異」此一假設。
本文以Cox等比例風險率模型（Cox proportional hazard model）分析高教育程度台灣女性是否較易「晚婚」，以Kaplan-Meier方法分析高教育程度台灣女性是否較易「不婚」，分析資料為行政院主計處於1979年到2006年間蒐集（共計15波）之婦女婚育與就業調查資料。並以非連續時間風險率模型（discrete-time hazard model）分析台灣女性結婚行為之教育落差，是否可完全由五種不同的經濟潛力變項解釋；其中這些經濟潛力變項之建構則結合主計處於1976年到2005年間蒐集（共計30波）之家庭收支調查資料與前述之15波婦女婚育與就業調查資料。
結果發現教育程度較高的台灣女性，不只更容易「晚婚」，也更容易「不婚」，此一結婚行為的教育落差不但在越晚近的出生世代越顯著，同時無法完全透過這五種經濟潛力的中介變項解釋。因此，本論文之結果指出教育除了透過既有理論所強調的經濟機制之外，仍透過其他非經濟的機制影響台灣女性的結婚行為，此一結果既不支持Becker（1981）的理論，也不支持Oppenheimer（1988）的理論。

關鍵字

初婚率 ； 教育落差 ； 事件史分析 ； 女性經濟獨立假設 ； 職業生涯假設

並列摘要

In this thesis, I address the debate over whether or not women are retreating from marriage as their economic potential improves. The empirical analyses focus on distinguishing between marriage delayed and marriage forgone. I use data pooled from 15 waves of the Women’s Marriage, Fertility, and Employment Surveys (WMFES) conducted between 1979 and 2006 to document cohort trends in marriage formation. I apply Cox proportional hazard regressions to analyze rates for marriage delayed and the Kaplan-Meier estimates of eventual probabilities for marriage forgone. I further examine the role of education as a proxy for women’s earnings potential in driving the documented trends in marriage formation. Earnings potentials are calculated using data pooled from the 1976-2006 waves of the Survey of Family Income and Expenditure (SFIE), and included in discrete-time hazard models to analyze the WMFES data. The results show that more highly educated Taiwanese women marry later and fewer than less educated women. The observed educational differentials in marriage formation among Taiwanese women cannot be fully attributed to the differences in human capital investment. These results suggest that there are non-economic mechanisms behind the educational differentials in Taiwanese women’s marriage formation. Hence my findings support neither Becker’s nor Oppenheimer’s theory about marriage formation.

並列關鍵字

marriage formation ； educational differentials ； even history analysis ； women’s economic independence hypothesis, and career entry hypothesis

參考文獻

----. 2004. “Effects of Higher Education Expansion on Inequality of Educational Opportunity.” Taiwanese Sociology 7: 47-88.

Tsai, H.-J. 2007. “Historical Formation of Population Policy in Taiwan.” Taiwanese Journal of Sociology 39: 65-106.

Allison, P. D. 1984. Event history analysis: Regression for longitudinal event data. California: SAGE Publications.

Arum, R., J. Roksa, and M. J. Budig. 2008. “The romance of college attendance: Higher education stratification and mate selection.” Research in Social Stratification and Mobility 26(2): 107-21.

Becker, Gary S., Murphy, Kevin M., and Tarmura, Robert. 1977. “An Economic Analysis of Marital Instability.” The Journal of Political Economy 85(6): 1141-1187.