以賭徒問題與多態離散時間馬可夫鏈探討泥砂運動機制

Application of Gambler's ruin Problem and Multi-State Discrete-Time Markov Chain to Sediment Transport Modeling

吳乃光(Nai-Kuang Wu)

指導教授 ： 蔡宛珊

國立臺灣大學/工學院/土木工程學研究所/碩士(2014年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2014.00492

摘要

無資料

關鍵字

泥砂運動 ； 賭徒問題 ； 不確定分析 ； 多態離散時間馬可夫鏈 ； 懸浮載濃度分佈

並列摘要

In this study, the transport process of uniform size sediment particles under steady and uniform flow is described by two different stochastic process approaches: the Gambler’s ruin problem and the multi-state discrete-time Markov chain. Firstly, the Gambler’s ruin model is employed to estimate the probability of reaching the designated capacity such as the pre-established water quality standard or maximum sediment carrying capacity in different flow conditions. Secondly, for application to the Shihmen reservoir and the Shi Lin weir in Taiwan, the Gambler’s ruin model is employed to simulate the daily effective risk of reaching to the limitation of the established water quality standard that can be handled by the water treatment plant. Finally, the uncertainty analysis is introduced to evaluate the effective risk variation of violating the pre-established water quality standard when considering the variability of the daily water level.
On the other hand, the multi-state discrete-time Markov chain is employed to describe the suspended sediment concentration distribution versus water depth for different steady and uniform flow conditions. Model results are validated against available measurement data and Rouse profile. Moreover, multi-state discrete-time Markov chain can be used to estimate the average time spent for the flow to reach the dynamic equilibrium of particle deposition and entrainment processes.

並列關鍵字

sediment particle movement ； uncertainty analysis ； multi-state discrete-time Markov chain ； suspended sediment concentration distribution

參考文獻

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