- 學位論文
「做風颱」：臺灣中央氣象局的預報員與其實作
“The Typhoon Is Materializing”: Weather Forecasters and Their Practices in the Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan
摘要
每年臺灣平均約面臨二至五個颱風的侵襲，因颱風豪雨引發的颱洪災害，平均每年造成臺灣社會的巨大損失。中央氣象局作為臺灣災害防救體系中的關鍵環節，長年被期待協助政府首長或相關災防部門，負起災害應變的治理責任。儘管運算科技與數值模式（numerical models）的發展，使中央氣象局能提供的預報資訊越加詳盡而準確，但是氣象預報必然面臨到預報不確定性問題，來自縣市政府的颱風災防假爭議近年來層出不窮，反映了中央氣象局在生產關於未來知識時必須面對不確定性，另一方面又要協助國家災害治理的責任。本研究以「氣象預報員如何兼容國家災害治理需求與科學不確定性」為核心發問，探問數值模式與科學實作、科技政策治理之間的關係。 本研究以中央氣象局預報中心的預報員為研究對象，進行參與式觀察、輔以半結構式訪談，將數值模式視為知識基礎設施（knowledge infrastructure）作為分析概念，並依循本體論轉向（ontological turn）的理論指導，將分析重點聚焦在預報員的實作之上，考察數值模式在臺灣社會脈絡中下被引入，又如何擾亂、影響當今預報員描繪未來天氣或颱風動向的實作。本研究發現，作為知識基礎設施的數值天氣模式，一方面生產出可操作化的機率念以表徵氣象預報的不確定性，成為與防災或政治部門溝通的平面，另一方面也為預報員爭取參與颱風災害治理決策的判斷餘地，兼容來自政治部門或災防部門的治理需求，使得颱風災害治理得以可能。換言之，這群預報員作為科技官僚，透過數值模式及在其之上實作，打造出科學不確定的範圍，創造得以兼容災防需求與社會期待的空間，帶領臺灣社會面對颱風而產生行動。
並列摘要
On average, two to five typhoons visit Taiwan annually and cause significant damage. The Central Weather Bureau (CWB), a vital organ in the commanding chain of the Disaster Prevention and Emergency Response System, is expected to assist the government in disaster management. Though in recent years the development of numerical models has allowed weather predictions with greater precision, controversies regarding the uncertainty of forecasting remain, including local governments’ decisions about typhoon day-offs. The CWB has to assist national disaster management while coping with the uncertainty of forecasting. The core research question of the study is how weather forecasters cope with the demands of disaster management as well as scientific uncertainty. By answering the question, this study aims to illustrate the relationships between numerical models, scientific practices, and policy-making decisions in disaster management and governance. My research subjects are the weather forecasters at the Weather Forecast Center in CWB. I conducted participatory observation as well as semi-structured interviews, focusing on the scientific practices of the forecasters. I adopted the ontological turn as the theoretical framework and saw numerical models as a knowledge infrastructure to investigate how the numerical models were introduced to Taiwan, and how they have been disrupting and influencing the weather forecasters’ forecasts or potential pathways of typhoons. This study shows that, as a knowledge infrastructure, numerical models produce operational probabilities, which represent the uncertainty of forecasting and thus facilitate communication with disaster prevention agencies and the government. Moreover, the numerical models gain bargainable space for the weather forecasters to meet the requirements of disaster management as laid down by the government or disaster prevention agencies. These all make typhoon prevention governance possible. To sum up, the weather forecasters as technocrats utilize the numerical models to create scientific uncertainty to fulfill the demands of disaster prevention and the expectations of the public expectations, and to lead the Taiwanese society’s response to typhoons.
參考文獻
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