後冷戰時期中日海軍戰略與發展之研究：現實主義的觀點

冷戰結束後，東亞地區便成為國際政治熱點。區域內的海軍發展引起了諸多觀察家的注意，特別是解放軍海軍在後冷戰時代的擴張是當前東亞海軍議題的焦點。儘管海上自衛隊在後冷戰時期並未顯著擴大其數量與質量，惟近年日本的行動顯示其意欲擺脫戰後制度的束縛。根據歷史，海權競逐經常導致戰爭──特別是大國戰爭。更重要的是，中國與日本曾在過去兩百餘年內爆發兩次大戰。因此，研究中日兩國在後冷戰時期的海軍戰略與發展對於評估未來東亞之局勢是重要的。本文以現實主義作為理論架構，並使用歷史研究法、文件研究法、內容分析法以及比較法，以便釐清中國與日本雙方的國家利益與海軍戰略，並評估目前雙方的海軍能確保其國家利益之程度。研究發現，中國的海軍戰略呈現攻勢傾向，符合修正主義國家之特徵；日本的海軍戰略則為守勢傾向，符合維持現狀國家之特徵。由於區域內各國的軍事現代化以及美國在東亞地區的軍事存在，高昂的衝突成本制約了解放軍海軍達成戰略目標的成功率。是故，在可預見的未來，東亞地區爆發大規模的武裝衝突的可能性不高。並且，由於中國尚未能達成大部分的戰略目標，其將賡續進行海軍建設。且美國的東亞政策可能存在不確定性，故不能排除未來日本擴張海軍武力的可能性。此外，中國與日本的海軍發展將迫使區域內多數國家繼續海軍軍事現代化作為回應。

關鍵字

東亞；海權；海軍戰略；大國政治

並列摘要

East Asia has become the hotspot of international politics since the end of the Cold War. The developments of navy in the region have had many observers attention especially the expansion of People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN),which is the focus on the issue of navy in East Asia. Although Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) hasn’t remarkably expanded its quantity and quality, it seems that Japan wants to get rid of the constraints of the post-war institutions in recent years. According to history, competing for sea power often particularly caused Great Power wars. More importantly, the wars between China and Japan broke out twice in the past two hundred years. As a result, researching the naval strategies and developments of China and Japan in the post-Cold War is significant to evaluate East Asian situation in the future. The study adopts realism as its theoretical framework and uses historical research, documentary research, content analysis and comparative method in order to clarify the national interests and naval strategies, and then assesses the extent to which the navies of both sides can ensure their national interests. The study finds that China’s naval strategy shows offensive tendency and therefore conforms to the characteristic of revisionist state; Japan’s naval strategy shows defensive tendency and therefore conforms to the characteristic of status quo state. Owing to the military modernizations of states in the region and the United States’ military presence in East Asia, high conflict costs restrict the success rate of PLAN’s strategic objectives. Thus the possibility of a large-scale armed conflict in East Asia is not high. Furthermore, China will continue its naval construction since China can’t attain its most strategic objectives. Also, the United States’ East Asian policy may be uncertain and consequently it cannot rule out the possibility of JMSDF’s expansion in the future. Moreover, most states in the region will be urged to carry on their naval military modernization in response to the naval developments of China and Japan.