透過您的圖書館登入
IP:3.215.79.206
  • 學位論文

所得不確定性對生育率的影響

The impact of the income uncertainty on fertility rate

指導教授 : 樊家忠

摘要


在過去的文獻中指出經濟衰退會影響家庭的生育決策,其理由為在經濟衰退期間一般勞工的所得不確定性會增加,他們擔心預期收入的減少將導致未來沒有足夠的經濟能力扶養小孩,而延後其生育計畫或放棄生育。但在台灣,公務人員的制度背景提供了公務員高度的工作穩定性,所以本文預期公務人員的生育決策將不會受到經濟衰退的影響。本文使用台灣健康保險研究資料庫 (NHIRD),資料庫記錄了1996年至2011年國內全體女性的生育記錄,並利用經濟衰退具有大多數民眾沒有辦法預測的特性,將2001年和2008年經濟衰退視為外生衝擊,來估計所得不確定性對於一般勞工女性和公務人員女性在生育決策的影響及其差異。本文使用Cox比例風險模型 (Cox proportional hazard model) 和差異中的差異法 (Difference-in-Difference) 兩種計量模型進行估計。Cox比例風險模型估計結果發現,相對於平常時期,在經濟衰退後的期間非公保女性的生育率相對於公保女性的生育率會降低,表示在經濟衰退後非公保女性有很大的可能性會延後其生育計畫。而差異中的差異法估計結果發現,不論使用失業率或經濟成長率作為景氣波動的解釋變數,其結論是一致的。在失業率較高或經濟成長率較低的時期,勞保女性會傾向不去生育小孩,延後其生育計畫,反之亦然;而公保女性則不會隨著失業率或經濟成長率的波動而改變其生育計畫。簡言之,本文的實證結果支持過去許多文獻的發現:個人所面對的所得不確定性越低,其生育決策受到經濟衰退的影響也越小。

並列摘要


Most studies have shown that the economic recession will affect the family fertility decision because the income uncertainty general labor faces will increase during the recession. They worry that the reduction in the expected income will make them not have sufficient financial capability to rear the child so they choose to postpone their timing of the childbearing or abandon their reproductive plan. But in Taiwan, the institution of the public servant provides high job security for public servants, so my study expects that public servant’s fertility decision will not be affected by the impact of the recession. This study uses the data compiled from the “National Health Insurance Research Database” (NHIRD) which records the birth records of the domestic entire women from 1996 to 2011. I take advantage of the characteristic of the recession unpredicted by most people, so this study can take the 2001 and 2008 economic recessions as external shocks to estimate the impact of the income uncertainty on the fertility decision for general labor women and public servant women. This study applies the Cox proportional hazard model and the Difference-in-Difference method to estimate. The Cox proportional hazard model estimation results show that, relative to normal economic times, non-civil servant insurance women are likely to postpone their reproductive plan during the recession. Whether the model uses the unemployment rate or the economic growth rate as the main explanatory variable, the Difference-in-Difference method estimation results show that the conclusions are consistent. In the periods of the high unemployment rate or the low economic growth rate, labor insurance women tend to postpone their reproductive plan, and vice versa. However, the fertility decisions of the civil servant insurance women aren’t affected by the fluctuation of the business cycle. In short, the empirical results support the findings of the previous literatures: the lower the income uncertainty women face, the lower the impact of the recession on their fertility decision.

參考文獻


駱明慶 (2007),“臺灣總生育率下降的表象與實際,”《研究臺灣》,第三期,37-60。
連賢明 (2010),“如何使用健保資料推估社經變數,”《人文及社會學刊集刊》,第二十三卷第三期,371-398。
Adsera, A. (2004), “Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labour market,” Journal of Population Economics, 17(1): 1-27.
Adsera, A. (2005), “Vanishing children: From high unemployment to low fertility in developed,” American Economic Review, 95: 189-193.
Adsera, A. (2011), “Where are the babies? Labour market conditions and fertility in Europe,” European Journal of Population, 27(1): 1-32.

延伸閱讀