中小企業投入新興科技的風險評估以4G LTE產業為例

The Emerging Technology Risk Assessment for Samll and Medium-sized Enterprises -A Case Study of 4G LTE Industry

王國雄(Kuo-Hsiung Wang)

指導教授 ： 李書行

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/會計與管理決策組/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.01010

摘要

本論文係針對新興科技中的4G LTE產業為研究專題，評估中小企業進入可能遭遇的風險。在此採用「公司的風險型態」「波特競爭五力分析」作為探討架構，尋找出風險因子，再以專家的訪談與問卷方式，對各個風險因子的發生機率與影響的程度作「風險質化」分析，找出關鍵風險因子，並針對其發展出可行的解決策略，以達到風險趨避的效果。由於新興科技具有市場成長性高，競爭者少產品有較高的利潤，創造先進者優勢等優點，能夠吸引企業積極的投入。然而新興科技卻也隱藏了市場需求不如預期的風險 ，進入時間點過早的風險，衝擊環境保護的風險，危害健康與生命的風險，造成人倫與道德衝突的風險，國際間禁止的風險等等風險。中小企業的財務資源、人力資源、技術資源、市場資源均為有限。如何作投資前的風險評估，預測風險，進而尋求解決方案，以降低風險，提升投資的成功機率。
經過本研究分析結果，得出三項主要的風險因子：（一）產品的功能被智慧型手機所替代；（二）晶片方案的選擇錯誤；（三）企業未來籌資與融資的不易取得。依據此關鍵風險因子，本研究提出相對應的解決策略，以降低可能的風險，有助於投資者思考如何創造贏的局勢。

關鍵字

新興科技 ； 4G LTE ； 風險評估 ； 風險質化

並列摘要

The research topic is to discuss the emerging technology - 4G LTE industry risks of Small & Medium-sized Enterprises investment. In this "company's risk type", "Porter five forces competitive analysis" as a framework to explore, to find out risk factors, then from the expert interviews , the incidence of various risk factors and impact of the degree of "risk qualitative "analysis to identify key risk factors, and for the development of a practical solution strategies to achieve the effect of risk aversion. As new technology has a high market growth, fewer competitors then has higher profit, to create advanced mover advantage, etc., to attract enterprises actively invested. However, new technology, but also hides the risk of market demand, the risk of prematurely entering point in time, the impact of environmental risks, influence health and life risks, and moral conflict risk.
SMEs face the financial resources , human resources, technical resources, market resources limitation. Making pre-investment risk assessment, risk prediction, and then seeking solutions to reduce risk, improving probability of investment success, that would be the key issue.
After the results of this study, drawn three major risk factors: (1) the product function is replaced by smart phones; (2) chipsets solution is incorrect; (3) the company hard to obtain the new capital in the future. Based on this key risk factors, this study correspond to the solution strategy to reduce the possible risks to help investors think about how to create win situation

並列關鍵字

Emerging Thchnologies ； 4G LTE ； Risk Accessemnt ； Risk Qualitative

參考文獻

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11.Peter F. Christoffersen (2002/8) “ Elements of Financial Risk Management”

12.Basel II (2001) “International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards: a Revised Framework”

1. Juniper Research ( 2010 /8), “ 4G LTE Hardware Opportunities”