評估生醫用雞胚胎蛋生產模式之成本與效益

Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Embryonic Eggs Production for Biomedical Use

闕筱芙(Hsiao-Fu Chueh)

指導教授 ： 周崇熙 ； 王宏文

國立臺灣大學/獸醫專業學院/獸醫學研究所/碩士(2015年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2015.01001

摘要

生醫用雞胚胎蛋生產模式根據疫苗種類、製程與實驗目的之需求不同，可分為無特定病原與傳統清淨兩種不同等級。為了解決生醫用胚胎蛋「生產規範不明」與「供需不平衡」之問題，本研究希望援引國際規範與認證標準、國內實驗動物相關準則與國內畜牧營業相關法規，並酌情產業現況以建立可規模化之生醫用雞胚胎蛋生產模式，希望提供訂定生產規範時之參考並按其建造與營運特性分類，進一步以淨現值法、情境分析法與Kaldor-Hick’s 補償原則來探討其投資與產業之經濟效益，並提出評價與決策建議。
關於整體成本特性的探討，無特定病原等級生產模式無論建造或營運成本均高於清淨等級生產模式。隨著飼養數量增加，無特定病原等級的建造成本增長性小於清淨等級，營運成本增長性則大於清淨等級。兩種方案邊際成本皆遞減，其中又以無特定病原的遞減幅度較大，直到飼養4千羽以上遞減效率最佳。除了探討不同等級生產成本，並可依據近5年國內市場研究資料假設積極投資與保守投資兩種生產規模，進而探討其20年內淨現值與回本情況。
關於投資經濟效益的評估，對決策者有利的方案由高至低分別為清淨等級積極投資模式(飼養115,051羽，年產1,700萬枚)、清淨等級保守投資規模(飼養87,981羽，年產1,300萬枚)、無特定病原等級積極投資模式(飼養8,798羽，年產130萬枚)，並分別於第6、6、12年回本，且無特定病原等級生產模式的預期未來需求量不得超過現有需求量之1.17倍，清淨等級不得大於1.44倍；而無特定病原等級保守投資模式(飼養677羽，年產10萬枚) 則造成虧損。對國內其他胚胎蛋生產業者無論任何方案皆因業務競爭而造成損失；對國產疫苗廠商有利的方案由高至低分別無特定病原等級積極投資模式、無特定病原等級保守投資規模；而清淨等級積極與保守投資規模若在目前的競爭訂價情況下則無影響。對總體產業而言，具有公眾淨效益的方案僅有無特定病原等級積極投資模式。沒有任何方案能符合帕累圖最適狀態，諸方案皆會造成部分個體之損失。
關於決策建議，為達成投資決策人與產業最大淨效益，本研究建議決策者建立稍具規模化之無特定病原等級生產模式(飼養至少3,358羽)。抑或建立較小規模生產模式，但需具備較低成本的資源取得能力或經由政府補貼方案來分散投資風險。同時建議與疫苗業者共同研議配合生產計畫，甚至透過投資關係轉嫁成本而建立自有供應鏈，以達成最有效率的生產與應用。另外，建議投資人應與國內民間既有胚胎蛋生產業者進行行銷或技術開發之合作，避免直接競爭關係。本研究也建議政府應分別於政策面、體制面與資源面給予產業協助。透過國際化規範與聯盟的建立、完整公正的國家級第三方疾病檢驗單位的分工、關鍵技術的產學合作，與生獎勵補助方案與監督輔導機制等，貫徹實現我國生技疫苗產業鏈上下游的完整性、人才的培育與國際外銷策略的發展。期許在國民防疫安全的良好維護下，更能使台灣未來成為東亞、東南亞地區重要的疫苗與原料研發與供應核心。

關鍵字

胚胎蛋 ； 疫苗 ； 成本效益 ； 凈現值 ； 情境分析

並列摘要

Embryonic eggs can be classified into specific-pathogen free (SPF) and conventional clean (clean) grades based on vaccine types and experiment objectives. We referred to international guides, local government regulations, and industrial information to establish mass production programs of embryonic eggs for biomedical use as well as to solve the “unclear standard” and the “imbalance of supply and demand” of embryonic eggs for biomedical use. Besides providing definition and guidance for embryonic eggs production, these programs were further analyzed in terms of their cost and benefit based on their construction and operation plans. In addition, net present value, scenario analysis, and Kaldor–Hicks efficiency were used to investigate the investment and industry benefits of the programs. Furthermore, evaluations were performed and suggestions were provided by the three approaches.
The results of the analysis revealed that the clean program under active investment (115,051 chickens with 17 million eggs production per year), the clean program under conserved investment (87,981 chickens with 12 million eggs production per year), and the SPF program under active investment (8,798 chickens with 1.3 million eggs production per year) will benefit investors and be break even at years 6, 6, 12. The over-expected raising and production scales of SPF and clean programs should not exceed 1.17 and 1.44 times than the present needs. The SPF program under conserved investment (677 chickens with 0.1 million eggs production per year) may not be profitable. All the programs will lead to losses to local competitors. The SPF programs will benefit vaccine manufacturers. However, considering the development of the entire industry, the SPF program under active investment is the only solution. Every program may cause some losses to the stakeholders.
We recommend the investment of the SPF program with 3,358 chickens as the basic raising scale or the smaller investment with the assessment of cheaper resources and official subsidy for the benefit of the investor and industry. Meanwhile, we suggest cooperation between investor and vaccine manufacturers through the organized production–purchase plans as well as investing relations. In addition, we suggest the co-development of sales and techniques between investor and local competitors to prevent the vicious competition. Furthermore, we recommend the government to assist the industry through its policies, systems, and resources. Through the establishment of international norms and unions, the establishment of national disease inspection units, the cooperation of techniques development, and the subsidy as well as supervision of the government, the domestic vaccine industry chain, biotechnical talents, and export strategies will be completely implemented. These efforts will ensure not only good immunization plans in the nation, but also ensure that a new prospect of being the core of vaccine supply is achieved along with its development in East and Southeast Asia.

並列關鍵字

Embryonic eggs ； Vaccine ； Cost–benefit analysis ； Net present value ； Scenario analysis

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