國防科技人才供需決策模型之設計

高科技產業的快速發展，造成全球對於科技人才的需求越來越大，因而高科技人才的供需失衡問題也日趨嚴重，所以高科技人才的人力資源規劃也成為一項重要的課題，然而不僅僅在產業中，高科技人才是一項重要的資產，由於科技的進步也造成戰爭型態的改變，同樣地在國防產業中，高科技人才也扮演了相當重要的角色。然而國防科技人才並非僅限於國防體系的培育，民間高科技人才往往在關鍵時刻扮演了極重要的角色。所以本研究將針對民間科技人才與國防需求之間的關係作深入的探討。本研究主要在研究國防上民間科技人才的人力規劃，意圖建立當量轉換模型、供需模型及動態供給模型。 1. 當量轉換模型：由於民間科技專長與國防科技並無直接對應關係，所以需建構一個轉換矩陣，將民間科技人才供給轉換為國防科技人才當量。 2. 供需模型：利用網路模型，建構出一個國防科技人才供需模型，可以清楚了解民間科技人才與國防需求之間的關係。 3. 動態供給矩陣：利用馬可夫鏈建構一個動態供給模型，了解不同時間的人才投入與移出對於最後所謂人才戰力結果的影響，做為國防科技人才培育決策的依據。最後，針對未來若要實際執行此三個模型，提供以下的建議： 1. 建構更完整的國內民間科技人才資料庫。 2. 參考專家意見，建構更完善的當量轉換模型。 3. 考慮馬可夫轉移矩陣會隨著其他因素變動的可能性。 4. 需更精確地估計國防科技群組的需求。 5. 進行更精細的人力規劃分配，進一步了解人才的供需情況。 6. 進行敏感度分析，提供決策相關的資訊。 7. 進行評估，考慮國防資源的重新分配。

關鍵字

網路模型；馬可夫程序；目標規劃

並列摘要

Rapid development of high tech industry causes the demand of high tech personnel in the world become more and more bigger. Therefore the demand and supply problem of high tech personnel also become more and more serious. So human resource planning of high tech personnel turns into a very important issue. However, due to the change of the war form caused by the advancement of science and technology, high tech personnel play a very important role not only in the general industries, but also in the national defense. But the training of national defense high tech personnel includes the both military and civil side. Hence，this study will discuss the relationship between civil high tech personnel and national defense demand. This study mainly studies the manpower planning of civil high tech personnel for national defense, and tries to build up the equivalent transformation model, supply and demand model and dynamic supply model. 1. Equivalent transformation model: Because there is no direct corresponding relationship between civil high tech specialties and national defense technologies, so we need to build up a transformation matrix. And then we can transform the civil high tech personnel supply into nation defense technical equivalents. 2. Supply and demand model: We use the network model to build up a national defense high tech personnel supply and demand model. So we can realize the relationship between civil high tech specialties and national defense technologies clearly. 3. Dynamic supply model: We use the Markov process to build up a dynamic supply model. So we can realize the effect which the movement of personnel affect the final fighting capacity. And this model can provide some information about the training of national defense high tech personnel. Finally, we provide some suggestion about if we want to implement this three model actually in the future. 1. To build up a more complete database of civil high tech personnel. 2. With some professional comments, to build a more complete equivalent transformation model. 3. To consider some possibility that the Markov transition matrix will be affected by some fact. 4. To estimate the national defense demand more accurately. 5. To do a more precise manpower planning, and to realize the supply and demand situation. 6. To do the sensitive analysis, and provide some information of decision. 7. To do some evaluation, and consider the reallocation of the national defense resources.

並列關鍵字

Goal Programming:Markov Process ； Network Model

參考文獻

1. Anthony, W. P., P. L. Pereewe, and K.M. Kacmar, Strategic Human Resource Management. The Dryden Press, Inc.,1996, PP186-215.

2. Ivacevich, J. M.,Hurman Resource Management , 8th ed. McGraw-Hill,Inc. ,2001.

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5. Liang, T. T., Thompson, Theodore J., “A Large-Scale Personnel Assignment Model for the Navy.” Decision Sciences. Atlanta: Spring 1987. Vol. 18, Iss. 2,1987 PP234-249.

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國防科技人才供需決策模型之設計

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