都會區移動污染源排放量推估方法之建立－以臺北市為例

蘇偉仁(Wei-Ren Su)

指導教授 ： 鄭福田

國立臺灣大學/工學院/環境工程學研究所/碩士(2005年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2005.00783

摘要

現行官方移動源排放量資料庫TEDS5.1以燃油銷耗法推估移動源排放量，以道路於空間中長度及面積分佈比例進行指派。此推估方式適用於長期且大區域之估算，於時空分佈解析能力較為不足。本研究以分析車流資訊，逐時統計每條道路之行車速度、車輛數及車行里程進行排放量推估計算。推估結果之空間分佈實際反映出車流分佈，時間分佈亦符合分析所得行車型態變化。比對現行資料庫，本研究推估臺北市移動源排放總量約為TEDS5.1資料庫60%至80%，市區具較高推估值，郊區具較低推估值。經ISC及TAQM空氣品質模式模擬，本研究模擬結果與大多監測值濃度分佈圖具較高R2值。分析地面等濃度圖得知，兩推估結果之差異經大氣數小時傳送擴散後，於臺北市境外產生臭氧污染物濃度分佈差異。TAQM模擬結果比對監測值逐時濃度變化圖顯出，兩推估方式模擬結果與監測值變化趨勢相符合，比較兩推估結果模擬值與監測值之差異性，本研究推估結果具較小之偏差。

關鍵字

移動源 ； 車流分佈 ； TAQM ； ISC ； TEDS5.1

並列摘要

The current official emission database, TEDS 5.1 , estimates the emission of line-source by fuel-consumption method and distributes the emission by length and area proportion of the road in space. This kind of estimation is suitable for long-term and large-area but insufficient analyzing ability in time and space. This study analyzes the traffic data to estimate the emission by average driving speed, car density, and vehicle kilometer traveled (VKT) of each road. The space distribution of the estimation reflects the actual car current, and the time distribution also conforms to the driving pattern by analyzing the traffic data. The total emission of the line-source in Taipei estimated in this study about 60% to 80% over predicted to TEDS 5.1 in the downtown; underestimated in the suburbs. Through the simulation of Industrial Source Complex models (ISC) and Taiwan Air Quality Model (TAQM), there is higher R square in the scatter plot of the simulation result of this study and the monitoring value. According to the contours, the difference between these two ways makes different ozone concentration distributions in the outside of Taipei after conveying and diffusing by atmosphere for several hours. The time serious concentration plots of the simulation result of TAQM and the monitoring value show the simulation result corresponds with the monitoring value varying pattern. The simulation result of TEDS 5.1 evaluates higher ozone concentration in high ozone concentration episode.

並列關鍵字

emission ； traffic ； TAQM ； ISC ； TEDS5.1

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