多種模式預測台灣分離式冷氣機市場銷售量之研究

Some Forecasting Models for Predicting the Monthly Market Sales of the Split Type Air Conditioner in Taiwan

潘佳筠(Jacklyn Pan)

指導教授 ： 游張松

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/商學研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2011.01818

摘要

無資料

關鍵字

季節性需求 ； 市場銷售量 ； 分解模式 ； 溫特趨勢季節性模式 ； 等分權重合併方法 ； 智慧型系統

並列摘要

As the demand for seasonal products change frequently, it is crucial to form an accurate estimation of seasonal demand prior to its actual sales. Accurate demand estimation can lead to higher customer satisfaction and lower operational costs. The purpose of this dissertation is to improve the quality of a market sales forecast in order to improve the effectiveness and efficiency in a company.
This research examines the monthly market sales forecast of a seasonal demand product in Taiwan, the split type air conditioner. Most market sales have a pattern including both seasonality and trend. Consequently, a comparative study is conducted on Winters multiplicative trend seasonal model, Winters additive trend seasonal model, the Decomposition model, the equal-weight combining method, and the expert systems.
The results show that the expert systems rule 1 has the smallest mean square error, while expert systems rule 2 has the largest mean square error for the period from January, 2010 to December, 2010. In summary, we conclude that the expert systems rule 1 is the simplest and the most accurate method in this case.

並列關鍵字

Seasonal demand ； Market sales ； Decomposition model ； Winters trend seasonal models ； Equal-weight combining method ； Expert systems

參考文獻

Armstrong, J. S. (2001), Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, J. Scott Armstrong (ed.): Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001.

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Armstrong, J. S., V. G. Morwitz & V. Kumar (2000), “Sales forecasts for existing consumer products and services: Do purchase intentions contribute to accuracy?” International Journal of Forecasting (forthcoming).

Ashton, A. H. & R. H. Ashton (1985), “Aggregating subjective forecasts: Some empirical results,” Managemen Science, 31,1499-1508.

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