開放大陸人士來台觀光對台灣經濟變數影響之研究

The study on the impact of opening visitation for people from Mainland China area has on Taiwanese Economic Variables

連姵如(Pei-Ju Lien)

指導教授 ： 陳明通

國立臺灣大學/社會科學院/國家發展研究所/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2007.10191

摘要

本研究希望藉由討論自2002年元旦陸續開放的「大陸地區人士來台從事觀光許可辦法」中，針對已開放的第二、三類大陸人士來台觀光的人次為台灣經濟所帶來的影響力，作為評估將來全面開放後，能夠為台灣旅遊業及整體經濟面帶動多少正面效益。本文試圖結合多項時間序列方法檢測開放大陸人士來台觀光之人數對工業生產指數、匯率、股價波動及消費者物價指數等幾項相關性較高之總體經濟因素的長期均衡關係、短期領先落後關係及跨期衝擊之互動研究；其中所使用的時間序列方法包括：考慮數列是否具有定態性的單根檢定、數列長期均衡關係的共整合檢定以及數列間的因果關係檢定，最後作衝擊反應分析。而從結果分析看來，開放大陸人士來台觀光對台灣總體的經濟變數有著長期均衡的共移趨勢，而且互為因果關係，甚至股價指數與開放人數有著密切且顯著的短期衝擊反應。

關鍵字

開放大陸人士來台觀光 ； 經濟變數 ； 時間序列分析

並列摘要

With the discussion on Taiwan’s economic impact resulting from the number of so-called the ‘second’ and ‘third’ categories of people from Mainland China visiting Taiwan, particularly as stipulated in “the regulations governing the approval of people from Mainland China area visiting Taiwan for tourist purposes” (effective since 2002), this study is to assess the positive effects on Taiwan’s tourism industry and the overall economic scope that has occurred due to this ‘Cross-Strait’ opening for Mainland Chinese tourists.
The highly relational factor of macroeconomics – the industrial production index, exchange rates, the stock market index and the consumer price indexes have been taken into consideration to examine the interrelationship of the long-run equilibrium and the short-term lead by using the time series method inclusive of unit root test ,co-integration test and Granger Causality, and in the end to conduct an analysis on inter-temporal impulses by using the impulse response function.
The results found that the number of people from Mainland China visiting Taiwan has a common moving trend of long-run equilibrium and causality with Taiwan macroeconomics factors and even has a short term impulse response with the stock market that is both close and significant.

並列關鍵字

Opening visitation for people from Mainland China area ； Economic Variables ； Time series analysis

參考文獻

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