能源市場對台灣經濟與產業影響暨對策之研究

從2000年至2008年以來，原油市場不停向上攀升讓人們逐漸開始重視能源枯竭的全球化衝擊效應。研究能源市場對台灣經濟與產業的影響，進而探索出政府、企業與人民相關的對策，由原油價格的歷史演進循環，從需求面、供給面、存量、政治面、氣候面、金融面等各面向來深入了解這能源市場，並分析台灣目前能源供需狀況。接著進行高油價下人民、企業、政府的相關對策討論與分析，其中人民的部分主要為一般民眾之交通對策，企業的部分主要為節能與環保上的對策探討與整理，政府的部分從浮動油價調整機制的內容、功效、優缺點談起，進而討論近年成長快速的風能、生質能、太陽能等替代能源發展趨勢。能源結構方面，能源進口依存度過高是台灣經濟發展的隱憂，應加強水力、風能、生質能、太陽能等自產能源的開發，。能源消費方面，從各項GDP數據可以發現台灣逐漸轉向工業、服務業雙核心的新經濟，此方面強調節能與能源價格合理化。另外，高油價起因可歸納為─基本面、技術面、消息面等因素。經濟上，過高的油價成長率是會對各產業經濟面造成負面影響的；消費者物價年增率、躉售物價變動年增率都是逐年攀升，短期因油價攀升帶來的物價提高影響對WPI較CPI大；2008年台幣的利率提高、匯率走強，央行政策在期望能平抑物價與抵消輸入性通貨膨脹的效果。一般大眾應選擇大眾運輸交通工具較佳，在中高油價下，自行開車除了客運外，相對於火車、高鐵、飛機需要累積到3~4人較划算，居家上可參考台電省電錦囊並淘汰低效率用電設備；企業可從企業面臨的狀況、上游、下游、議題與機會進而找出企業節能與環保的機會與改良點；政府的浮動油價機制需兼顧市場機制與保障弱勢，讓多用油者付較高的費用與能源稅較為適當。台灣替代能源產業發展與趨勢，短期的再生能源主力仍以水力為主，其次為生質能、風能、太陽能，自產性的環保無碳能源是鞏固台灣能源安全自主性的重要發展方向，未來長期應該更加鼓勵政府與企業投入發展，加強海域風力發電技術發展、穩定生質料源、提升太陽能效率與降低各能源成本，期望未來能在技術突破與發揮規模經濟將發電成本降低。

關鍵字

油價；化石燃料；替代能源；再生能源

並列摘要

The oil market has been strongly rising from 2000 to 2008. People have gradually attached importance to the impact from global exhaustion of energy. We study the influence of energy market to economics and industries in Taiwan and explore the strategies of government, enterprises, and households. First, we study the historical cycle of main energy market, crude oil price, from aspects of demand, supply, inventories, political, weather, and finance to understand oil long bull market and analyze the demand and supply of enegy structures in Taiwan. Second, we construct the communication strategies for households, strategies of saving energy and environment protection for enterprises. In aspects of government, we discuss the contents, effects and crituqes of floating oil price mechanism and analyze three alternative energies: wind, bio-mass, and solar energy which are growing quickly in recent years. In energy structure, it is a great secret worry that our dependence index of imported enegy is too high to be self-sufficient. We should focus on the development of water, wind, bio-mass, and solar energy. In energy consumption, we could find new dual core economies, industry and service, from GDP figures. Therefore, we should focus on energy saving and rationalizing energy price. Besides, we compress the factors high oil prices to fundamental, technical, and information aspects. Higher oil price growth rate would have negative influence to most industries. CPI% and WPI% are increasing in recent years. In the short term, WPI% would increase more than CPI due to high oil price. In 2008, interest rate and exchange rate are enhanced to reduce the effect of imported inflation. People should take more advantage of mass transportation services under high energy price. In medium to high oil price, it would be more benefits to drive by ourselves above three passengers than trains, Taiwan High Speed Rails, and flights. Households can refer to taipower’s web-saving electricity information and replace low energy efficiency electrical appliances. Enterprises can explore the aspects, upstream, downstream, issues, and opportunities to find some improvement of saving energy and environment protection. The floating oil price mechanism should protect minority groups and reflect the true market situation so that people using more could pay more energy taxes. The development and tend of alternative energy in Taiwan still focus on water, bio-mass, wind, solar energy in the short term. Low carbon and self-produced energy is an important trend to consolidate our energy safety. In the future, government should encourage research and development of enterprises, strengthen development of off-shore wind energy, stabile the sources of bio-mass, enhance the efficiency of solar energy, and lower the costs of all energy.

並列關鍵字

oil price ； fossil fuel ； alternative energy ； renewable energy

參考文獻

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國際替代計量

能源市場對台灣經濟與產業影響暨對策之研究

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