模糊多準則決策與衝突分析於廢棄物管理之應用

Applying Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Making and Conflict Analysis Model for Municipal Solid Waste Management

洪明龍(Ming-Lung Hung)

指導教授 ： 楊萬發

國立臺灣大學/工學院/環境工程學研究所/博士(2006年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2006.01066

摘要

國內外有關廢棄物管理之相關研究大多應用多目標規劃模式建立與多準則決策模式，在前者部分，由於決策者所關心之準則本身，往往具有質化及量化特性，而傳統之多目標求解方式大多僅能處理量化數據，最後導致求解過程中遭受許多限制，造成所得之解僅為「部分非劣解」，並非真正非劣解，因此如何求得質化及量化特性同時存在之目標函數便為一重要課題。在後者部分，由於多準則決策方法本身具有不確定性，因此，發展一輔助決策工具，使決策過程更為嚴謹實屬必要。因此發展廢棄物管理決策模式，使決策者於政策評估時得以更客觀與更公正已刻不容緩。
本研究先以層級分析法為範例，探討該方法本身之不確定性，以作為發展本研究方法之依據。雖然已有許多研究針對層級分析法之不確定性進行探討，但上述研究之不確定性探討都屬於片斷式的，亦即吾人雖可從其中研究瞭解各種不確定發生之原因及影響，但卻無法瞭解整個評估程序之不確定性，本研究以系統觀點計算層級分析法之不確定性，並提出正規化過程為造成不確定性之主要來源。
在上述多準則決策方法本身之不確定性存在之基礎下，本研究提出輔助決策之工具，發展出一衝突分析方法以整合決策者、利害關係人及專家學者之觀點，尋找各相關團體之環境管理妥協可行方案，本研究主要以語意變數為基礎建立各方案之「共識指標」，以量化各相關團體對各可行方案之共識程度，並繪製共識圖以瞭解方案執行後之可能衝突來源，作為政府政策執行時參考。除此之外，本研究亦提出一種新的多目標求解(兩階段解法)方式，整合多目標決策及多屬性決策之優點以處理量化及質化資料同時存在之問題，將多目標規劃求解過程分為兩階段，第一階段利用模糊多準則評估方式中最常使用之模糊層級分析法先針對方案進行排序，第二階段再進行模式求解。結果發現利用本方法可將多目標問題轉變為單目標線性規劃模式進行求解。
本研究以垃圾焚化飛灰再利用及廚餘回收為案例驗證本方法之實用性，最後再以Stella為工具，建立廢棄物管理決策支援系統。

關鍵字

多目標規劃 ； 質化 ； 多準則決策 ； 模糊層級分析法 ； 系統不確定性 ； 衝突分析方法 ； 廢棄物管理 ； 廚餘 ； 飛灰 ； 決策支援系統

並列摘要

The uncertainty of the AHP methodology is analyzed in a systematic view in this study. This work addresses two kinds of uncertainties associated with the AHP: the first is uncertainty associated with normalization; the other is the uncertainty of evaluation of qualitative criteria. The effect of fuzzy linguistic variables methods are also examined in this investigation. Simulation experiments are developed to quantify the uncertainty of the AHP. Computational results reveal that (1) the rank reversal phenomenon can occur no matter whether an alternative is added or not; (2) the procedure of normalization is the principal source of the uncertainty of the AHP methodology; (3) the fuzzy linguistic variables methods can reduce the uncertainty of the AHP. The transmission of uncertainty of the AHP is also described in this study.
Environmental management problems are very complex and require considering numerous factors, such as environmental, economic, and social aspects. Qualitative and quantitative data always exist simultaneously in real world decision making situations. A novel multiobjective programming approach is proposed in this study to solve qualitative and quantitative objectives for environmental management problems. This approach integrates the multiattribute and multiobjective decision making methods and contains three main steps to solve the multiobjective programming problems, including formulation of the decision model, the alternatives prioritization by the fuzzy AHP method, and solving the model.
This study also reviews several models developed to support decision making in municipal solid waste management (MSWM). The concepts underlying sustainable MSWM model can be divided into two categories: one incorporates social factors into decision making methods, and the other includes public participation in the decision-making process. The public is only apprised or takes part in discussion and has little effect on decision making in most researches. Few studies have considered public participation in the decision-making process. Additionally, all the methods seek to strike a compromise between concerned criteria, not between stakeholders. However, the source of the conflict arises from the stakeholders’ complex web of value. Such conflict affects the feasibility of implementing any decision.
The purpose of this study is to develop a sustainable decision making model for MSWM to overcome these shortcomings. The proposed model combines multicriteria decision making (MCDM) and a consensus analysis model (CAM). The CAM is built up to aid decision-making when MCDM methods are utilized and, subsequently, a novel sustainable decision making model for MSWM is developed. The main feature of CAM is the assessment of the degree of consensus between stakeholders for particular alternatives. Two case studies for food waste management and fly ash of municipal solid waste incinerator in Taipei are presented to demonstrate the practicality of this model.

並列關鍵字

Multiobjective programming (MOP) ； Qualitative ； Multicriteria decision making ； Fuzzy AHP ； Systemic uncertainty ； Consensus analysis model (CAM) ； municipal solid waste management (MSWM) ； Food waste ； Fly ash ； Decision support system

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